Stephen Jardine: 4.7 billion reasons why SNP and Scotland's bloated civil service are about to go to war

With sunshine forecast, it will be a rare chance for some people to spend Monday at home. Unless they work for the Scottish Government. A recent Freedom of Information request revealed the impact of working from home within the Scottish civil service.

Core staff are expected to be in the office 40 per cent of the working week but data from building security passes revealed an average daily attendance of just 5 per cent on Mondays and 3 per cent on Fridays. For most civil servants, Monday at home will be just another Monday at home.

READ MORE: Staffing concerns in the civil service as internal communications revealed

A black hole in public finances

We’re told workers are just as productive but if you’ve had any dealings with the civil service or local authorities, has that been the reality? The head of the civil service has been accused of being scared to deal with staff who refuse to work from the office 40 per cent of the week. Permanent Secretary Joe Griffin admitted making compromises with civil service trade unions after they warned strikes could follow any office-hours crackdown.

That may have won some more time at home but change is coming. The elephant in the room during the Scottish election campaign was the looming £4.7 billion black hole in public finances caused by an accumulation of spending exceeding income. No party really wanted to talk about it because elections are won on the basis of promises, not threats, but balancing the books is a legal requirement.

According to the Institute For Fiscal Studies, the government has three choices. Tax increases and spending cuts have both been ruled out, so that leaves only greater government efficiency. In other words, job cuts.

READ MORE: SNP's top civil servant insists 'not everything is broken' amid pressure on services to make cuts

Tough decisions must be taken

The Scottish civil service has boomed in recent years with numbers now at their highest ever level. Staffing has increased by 70 per cent since 2013 and critics say it is inefficient, bloated and failing to deliver value for taxpayers.

That’s bad timing when the Scottish Government has committed to cutting 11,000 public sector jobs to reduce spending by £1.5bn. And that may be only the start. The Fraser of Allander Institute says the approach being taken is just papering over the cracks and tougher decisions will need to be made.

Each year the Scottish Government spends nearly half its £59bn budget on staff pay. Rises were capped at 9 per cent over three years but 8 per cent of that disappeared within two years. From education to health, Scottish ministers have been desperate to avoid the industrial disputes seen down south and are hoping natural wastage will reduce the headcount but it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that, given the state of public finances, something’s got to give.

A chill wind has been blowing through the economy since the pandemic. Many businesses have felt it but until now the public sector has been protected. That is about to change.