Scotland need to achieve something this year - I can see us finishing second in Six Nations

Three of their first four games are at Murrayfield so it is a huge opportunity to make home advantage count.

You have to go back six years for the last time Scotland opened the championship with two home games in a row. Italy and Ireland were their first opponents in 2019, the same as this year.

Italy beat Scotland in Rome last year in a tight game before going on to beat Wales a week later, finishing the tournament with two wins and a draw, their best ever result. They are a dangerous team, much improved from the perennial whipping boys and will pose a significant challenge but an opening weekend home fixture is as good as Scotland could have hoped for.

So far, so positive. The big negative for Scotland is that Sione Tuipulotu and Scott Cummings are out – two big losses. Sione's in the conversation for being one of the best players in the world, certainly the best 12 in the world. I’m biased of course – how could I not be, being both a Scotland fan and an ex-teammate? – but don’t just take my word for it. Week in week out he continues to gather plaudits from coaches, players, pundits, and fans across the URC and further afield. He is in most people’s starting Lions team for the summer competing with the likes of Henry Slade, Ollie Lawrence, Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw. Sione is out in front by quite some distance.

He’s also a big loss from a leadership point of view. Behind the scenes, he's a really infectious, energetic character. He speaks with such authority because he's really genuine and I think genuine leadership goes a long way, particularly in sport. And because his ability is so high, he can deliver on what he says.

He will be a big loss defensively. The Scotland centre pairing would almost certainly have been Sione 12 and Huw Jones at 13. Huw’s defence has improved so much, but I think you can't underestimate how much confidence he gets defensively by having Sione inside of him.

Stafford McDowall has been given the nod at 12 for today’s opener but, of course, it will be Sione’s attacking ability that will be most obviously missed. Everyone talks about Finn Russell because he controls the entire attack structure for Scotland, but Sione is the key cog in that Finn Russell attack structure. He takes a little bit of the pressure off and gives Scotland that different dynamic, that different point of attack. So, almost on every single front, Sione is going to be a big loss for Scotland.

Scott Cummings has probably gone under the radar a little bit in terms of what his not being there will mean.

He and Grant Gilchrist have played a lot of rugby together in the second row. Scott's dynamic around the pitch. Run’s good lines off 9 and 10 and has the ability to free his hands and keep the ball alive just as he demonstrated for Jamie Dobie’s try at Hampden against Edinburgh before Christmas.

It’s not something Scotland have in abundance in their front five. Zander Fagerson, Pierre Schoeman and Ewan Ashman will all run willingly into heavy traffic and make hard yards. Gilchrist will do the same but none of them quite have the same instinct at being able to pick a hole.

The other area Scott will be missed will be in the set-piece and in particular, line-out defence. Glasgow have one of the best maul defences in the URC in no small part to Scott who has become a master at splitting oppositions mauls and finding his way through onto the ball carrier where he can force a turnover. Test rugby is about the basics of the game and about nullifying the oppositions effectiveness from set-piece and Scott’s absence will be a big loss to Scotland.

When you factor in Richie Gray pretty much retiring from Scotland duties by moving to Japan then that's a lot of knowledge and experience to have lost a few short months for Scotland.

Having said that, what a replacement to be able to bring in for Scott in the form of Jonny Gray. After almost two years away from the environment it’s brilliant to see Jonny back and in the starting XV. Just to have him in and around that environment, with his experience, is important. Once upon a time you couldn't imagine anyone else playing in the second row apart from Jonny and Richie Gray.

It was good to see Cam Henderson called into the squad this week and I was surprised that he wasn’t in from the start. We spoke to Cam last year for this column as he and I both went through our recoveries from ACL injuries. It feels fitting that 12 months on, he's back in a Scotland squad.

He's been starting every week for Leicester who are fourth in the Premiership and I think it will be very good for the Scotland coaches to see him up close and personal. You get an opinion about a player, good or bad or indifferent, from watching them in games but you can't actually tell how they operate until you get them in training day in, day out.

There's a lot of options in there which would suggest that they're not quite sure which way to go in the second row. There are no out and out front runners and they're searching a little bit between form, reputation and experience to find out which is the best combination.

The rest of the squad I suppose is pretty familiar and, as ever, a lot will depend on Finn. He’s such an important player for both Scotland and Bath and I think both parties will look after him.

They cannot flog him over the next eight weeks and I'm sure they will find a way to make sure he gets enough rest.

I’m fascinated by the hooker situation, and I don’t think people realise what a big loss Dylan Richardson is. He gave Scotland something a little bit different around the pitch to the other hookers because from a set-piece point of view they're all very similar with their consistency.

Dave Cherry, picked ahead of Ewan Ashman for today's game, is back in the squad along with Paddy Harrison which means that all three hookers are from Edinburgh. I must admit I was surprised all three Edinburgh hookers made the squad ahead of both Johnny Mathews and Gregor Hiddleston.

Both have been playing well for Glasgow. Gregor may now be injured but wasn’t at the time the squad was announced and is a player that every time I see him play just gets better and better. Johnny Matthews has also been playing well for Glasgow and has also been overlooked. I’m not sure what the conversations are around selection, but I just find it difficult to understand overlooking both Glasgow players.

Obviously I've got pretty good experience in this area. We’ve had Dougie Hall, Ross Ford, myself, Stuart McInally and George Turner all competing for the position in recent years and then all of a sudden we seem to have this big gap.

To pick three hookers from Edinburgh and none from Glasgow is a little strange when Glasgow are sitting second in the league and are URC champions.

It's a big championship for Scotland this year. Gregor Townsend's under contract until April 2026 but there's only so long that you can say we're building towards something. We need to achieve something.

Ireland are in a bit more of a transition than they have been over the last few years. Andy Farrell is away with the Lions, and they’ve still not properly replaced Johnny Sexton at 10. We've got an England team that also still seems to be in transition from two or three years ago. They're getting in new coaches, new players. Italy will blow hot and cold and France will be tough in Paris, obviously.

Then you've got a Wales team who have been a shambles for the last year and a half but who are always capable of raising their game in the Six Nations.

For a number of years now we have spoken about ‘the best generation of Scottish professionals’ and every year it seems to be our best opportunity yet. I should know, I was a part of almost every single one of those groups. Gregor's been there now for almost eight years, some of the players even longer. There needs to be something tangible to show for it. No one remembers how many second and third-place finishes you have had. In test rugby success is only measure by what you win.

Can Scotland do it? Of course they can. They'll need to play exceptionally well across all five games and hope for more than a little bit of luck along the way.

Luck plays a big part and Scotland didn't get it last year, most obviously when TMO Brian MacNeice didn’t award the last-minute try against France.

So you need things to fall your way but momentum brings luck. I think Scotland have the potential to win but they need to start well and make the most of their home advantage.

I see this year’s championship as a four-way fight between Scotland, Ireland, France and England. I include England because they have such abundant talent.

They have so many top quality players and so much potential in that squad. If they can go to Dublin and beat Ireland in their opener then they are up and running and that could be a difficult train to stop.

France are under a lot of pressure to deliver this year; Ireland less so. With Andy Farrell not there, they have a little bit of leeway. They are without Tadhg Furlong for the England game due to a calf injury and that is a big loss.

I think there was more pressure on Ireland last year after that disappointment of the World Cup and they managed to deliver by winning the Six Nations. If Ireland click at 9, 10 and 12, then they'll be difficult to stop. But they still have a vulnerability in the front five, especially with Furlong injured. Can the other tightheads anchor down that Ireland set piece so effectively? I don't think so, and it could be a real area for concern for the reigning champions if they want to defend their crown.

For France, the pressure is growing. They didn’t win their home World Cup and they didn’t win last season’s Six Nations. The good news is that Antoine Dupont is back and he’s playing better than ever, if that’s possible. He is just ridiculous.

Italy enjoyed a great Six Nations last year, drawing with France and then beating Scotland and Wales in their final three games. But it's 10 and a half months later and difficult to maintain that momentum, especially when you don't have that pedigree of success behind you.

Everyone within that team may believe they'll go and win, but you actually need the public pressure of support and belief and expectation behind you to help drive that.

England have that and it can be a curse and a blessing. Traditionally, no matter what England team has rolled out, every single England supporter expects them to go and finish first or second. It creates a hell of a lot of pressure.

But it drip feeds into your psyche as a nation, as a team that will just go out and win. Scotland and Italy just don't have that. Wales have had it.

Remember when they went and won the Six Nations in 2019 with a squad that had been derided as their worst ever? It's about having a little bit of arrogance, that inherent confidence that they can go out and beat anyone on the day. We don't quite have that, I believe…yet.

Nor do Italy. They're overly reliant on Benetton. There is a lot of talent in the Italy squad, notably Ange Capuozzo at 15. And they have a big, powerful front five, again, built around Benetton. But do they genuinely believe they can go and win the Six Nations? No, I don't think so.

This weekend’s game at Murrayfield is fascinating. You've got a team in Italy that need a win to generate self-belief, against a team in Scotland that need to win to kick-start a title challenge and prove that it's not just all words.

I would love to see Scotland win the championship but away games against England and France makes it very tough. We’ve won the last two times at Twickenham, in 2021 during Covid in an empty stadium, and in 2023 in front of a full house which was a monumental occasion.

But to go and win in London and Paris is a big, big task. And to have to beat Irelnd as well.

I can see Scotland finishing second which would be a good season, but I can't see past France for the title.

They need to deliver after the World Cup and last year's Six Nations. Not only is Dupont back but their teams have been ripping it up in the Champions Cup. And it’s not just Toulouse, it’s Bordeaux and Toulon as well, with teams that are packed full of French players. Yes, we’ve got Blair Kinghorn, Jonny Gray and Ben White at those three clubs but they rely heavily on native talent.

I think if you finish ahead of France then you finish top. Ireland obviously have that pedigree. I think England are kind of that dark horse, but I think France might just have too much for us all.