Why Scottish Rugby will be reluctant to sack Gregor Townsend amid growing unrest

Certainly this Sunday’s game against Tonga is unlikely to change any supporter’s view of an autumn campaign that has been laced with disappointments.

While it began with an 85-0 hammering of the USA, the match with the Americans was such a mismatch it barely merits Test status. Last weekend’s game with New Zealand was a thrillingly high-quality contest and one in which Scotland outplayed their illustrious opponents in the second half. But they failed to make the most of their chances and were eventually mugged by the classy Damian McKenzie in a 25-17 defeat.

In many ways the Tonga game is a no win situation for Townsend and Scotland. A victory will elicit little in the way of plaudits given Tonga are below even the US on World Rugby’s rankings ladder. A defeat is unthinkable - just look at what happened to Andy Robinson.

Reputational impact

A loss to Tonga at Pittodrie in 2012 spelled the end for Robinson as Scotland head coach and a similar result would make Townsend’s position untenable. Many Scotland supporters already think it is but the Murrayfield hierarchy made a declaration of faith in Townsend in September when they awarded him a new deal until the end of 2027.

It would be expensive to now terminate the contract and, for a union which has just posted losses for the third year in a row, it is a cost they can ill afford. There is also the reputational impact to consider. The regime is still relatively new, with chief executive Alex Williamson in post for less than a year. He relies heavily on consultant performance director David Nucifora and both men were full-square behind Townsend a matter of weeks ago. Sacking him now would be an admission they got it badly wrong.

Easier to give him the 2026 Six Nations and gather more evidence on his suitability or otherwise to lead Scotland into the 2027 Rugby World Cup. It would also allow them to assess other options, although the obvious candidate, Franco Smith of Glasgow Warriors, remains under their noses.

Of course, the decision could be taken out of the hands of Williamson and Nucifora. Townsend may feel he has taken Scotland as far as he can and leave of his own volition but there was no sense of that when he spoke after the Argentina match on Sunday, despite the boos from the home crowd.

Many just got up and walked out

People leaving Murrayfield a week past Saturday probably thought the close shave with the All Blacks would define Scotland’s 2025 autumn series. Then Argentina came along. Their 33-24 win represents one of the greatest comebacks in international rugby history, with all their points coming in the final 24 minutes.

It provoked dramatically contrasting scenes inside Murrayfield. A small group of Pumas fans bunched together in the West Stand celebrated wildly at their second try as they sensed something special was happening. And when Pablo Matera scored their fourth to put Argentina in the lead for the first time they rose as one to acclaim their side. It proved too much for those of a tartan disposition. Many just got up and walked out; others vented at Townsend and the players, booing loudly. One or two shouted expletives. Murrayfield had never seen the like.

Unfortunately for Townsend and Scotland, there have been too many disappointments this year. The autumn series was the third campaign in a row which has fallen below expectations, exposing once again the fragility within the squad.

The Six Nations produced just two wins, both at home, against Italy and Wales, the poorest sides in the competition. The Welsh match was noteworthy for the way Scotland allowed their opponents back into the game. Having led 35-8 early in the second half, they looked on course for their record victory in the fixture only to concede three unanswered tries, reducing the winning margin to a mere six points. It had been a similar story the year before in Cardiff as Scotland’s 27-0 lead was whittled down to 27-26.

Question marks over the players’ character

The summer tour saw Scotland lose to Fiji, a hammer blow to their hopes of being top seeds when the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup is made next month. The Scots will now be in pot 2 and will find themselves in a group alongside one of the game’s heavyweights: South Africa, New Zealand, Ireland, England, France or, Sunday’s conquerors, Argentina.

On paper, the autumn results went with form. New Zealand and Argentina are both ranked above Scotland so losing to both was not necessarily a shock but it was the manner of the defeats. This team’s inability to see out the Argentina game in particular places a huge question mark over the players’ character.

The only Test victories this year have come against Italy, Wales, Samoa and the USA. Scotland have been beaten by Ireland, England, France, Fiji, New Zealand and Argentina, a sequence of results that has seen the team fall from sixth to ninth in the rankings.

The coach knows that flak will continue to come his way and there are many who think he has overstayed his welcome despite the ink being barely dry on the new deal he signed in September. Williamson and Nucifora thought then that Townsend was the man to lead Scotland into the 2027 World Cup and if he does see out his latest contract he will have been national head coach for over a decade.

It’s a long time to be in charge and as this excruciating autumn campaign draws to a close it’s impossible not to feel that a new voice would bring fresh impetus to this talented squad.