Why Scotland summer tour and autumn Tests impact Rugby World Cup chances

The draw will be based on the World Rugby rankings at the end of the November international window, almost two years before the 2027 tournament kicks off in Australia. But it’s an improvement on the last men’s World Cup draw which took place in December 2020, 1000 days before the competition in France in 2023.

On that occasion the seedings were based on teams’ world ranking on January 1, 2020 which meant their performances in the 2019 World Cup shaped their seeding for the next tournament. Consequently, Scotland were in Band 3 having been ranked ninth in the world at the start of the year, and landed the proverbial group of death alongside holders South Africa and Ireland, who had been ranked first in the world, as well as Tonga and Romania.

It meant that by the time the 2023 tournament began, three of the world’s top-five ranked teams were in the same group. The Scots, who had climbed to fifth in the rankings, finished third in the Pool B and failed to progress to the knockout stage for the second tournament in a row. With the other two from the top five – France and New Zealand – paired in Pool A, the top half of the draw was far stronger than the bottom, making the 2023 World Cup very lopsided.

Expansion will help Scotland

Scotland should be better placed this time around. Gregor Townsend’s side are currently ranked seventh in the world ahead of their summer tour which will see them face Māori All Blacks, Fiji and Samoa - although the Māori will not carry ranking points. They then go into an autumn series at Murrayfield against USA, New Zealand, Argentina and Tonga.

Scotland’s cause will also be helped by the fact that the World Cup is expanding in 2027 from 20 teams to 24. A new format will see the competing nations split into six pools of four. The expanded tournament will feature an extra knockout round - the round of 16 - meaning that only eight of the 24 teams won’t make it through the groups.

Rugby World Cup organisers believe that holding the draw closer to the tournament gives a fairer reflection of respective teams’ standings.

“This approach ensures a more accurate and up-to-date seeding process and adds significant weight to every international test match played in the remainder of the calendar year,” said the tournament’s website.

Lions tour won’t impact on rankings

“With the rankings set to determine the banding of teams for the draw, every result between now and December could directly impact the makeup of the six pools of four. Fixtures played during the British and Irish Lions tour – a major event in its own right and a key milestone in a golden decade for rugby in Australia – will not be counted towards the rankings used for Rugby World Cup seeding purposes.”

The draw this December will also mark the first time in the professional era that the men’s pool draw will take place with all participating teams confirmed. It was announced on Thursday that the Final Qualification Tournament will take place in Dubai from November 8-18, 2025 at The Sevens Stadium. It will see four teams compete for the final place at the 2027 World Cup in Australia.

The expanded format with 24 teams will increase the number of matches at the tournament from 48 to 52.