Scotland's latest Six Nations challenge not for faint-hearted but win brings enormous spoils

To do so they must emerge unscathed from a match against what is surely the most beleaguered Wales side to have worn the famous red jerseys.

On the pitch, they are in the midst of their worst ever run in the championship. Off it, they are bedevilled by chaos, mismanagement and internecine warfare.

Sione Tuipulotu spoke last week of Scotland being a “desperate” team, hellbent on atoning for the loss to Italy in round one. They duly did so with a performance against England that showcased the very best of Gregor Townsend-era Scotland.

This weekend, it’s Wales who are the desperate men. They’ve already suffered badly in this Six Nations, haemorrhaging over 100 points in two matches, against England and France. A tough start, for sure, and they will see Scotland in Cardiff as a chance to kick-start their campaign.

To prevent that happening Townsend and his squad must replicate the standards they set in the Calcutta Cup. It is something they have struggled to do. On six of the seven most recent occasions they have beaten England, Scotland have lost their next game. The outlier was 2023 when they followed up a famous win at Twickenham with a home victory over Wales.

That was the first of three successive wins over the Welsh, the best run Scotland have had in the fixture since 1989-91 and the days of Grand Slam glory.

They should - should - make it four and the bookmakers certainly think so. The Scots are massive odds-on favourites, something Townsend was keen to disassociate himself from. “I'm sure last week a lot of people thought England were clear favourites,” sniffed the coach. “The game is not about predictions and previous form, it's a lot about what you do in those 80 minutes. We've got to make sure that we get our game out.”

The extraordinary Wales v Scotland match

Scotland managed that beautifully last week and it was a joy to watch. Finn Russell played with verve, control and imagination and made his opposite number George Ford look pedestrian in comparison. Outside him, Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones caused England trouble all afternoon and in Jamie Dobie and particularly Kyle Steyn Scotland had wingers who bossed the aerial battle and offered plenty of threat.

Dobie will sit out the remainder of the championship and after undergoing an operation on the shoulder he injured at Murrayfield. He will be missed but his absence opens the door for Duhan van der Merwe’s return. The Edinburgh winger has good history at the Principality Stadium, scoring a double two years ago and almost making it a hat-trick in the final moments.

That was an extraordinary game inasmuch as Scotland played out of their skins for 45 minutes, building a 27-0 lead. Then the (closed) roof almost fell in for Townsend's side as Wales staged the mother of all comebacks. Four tries in 20 minutes brought the home side back to within a point and if Ioan Lloyd had landed the first conversion the outcome could have been different. As it was, Scotland rallied late on and escaped from Cardiff with a 27-26 victory, their first in the Welsh capital for 22 years, halting an 11-game losing sequence.

In many ways, 2024 was van der Merwe’s finest hour in the championship. He bagged a hat-trick against England at Murrayfield three weeks after Cardiff and finished the tournament as joint top try-scorer. How Scotland would like him to turn the clock back on Saturday and rediscover the swashbuckling form that has, in the main, been missing this season.

Last year’s game at Murrayfield unfolded in a similar fashion to 2024, with Scotland starting off like a train, building a big lead and then being steadily pegged back. The Scots were 27 points ahead early in the second half only for Wales to score three unanswered tries which were all converted. The home side eventually won 35-29 but it felt unnecessarily close.

Blair Kinghorn was Scotland’s star turn that day which may have influenced Townsend’s thinking when he recalled the Toulouse full-back. The coach will hope opportunities present themselves to Kinghorn and van der Merwe and there are few better than attacking off unstructured play. Darcy Graham can be added to that mix in the second half.

Before that, Townsend expects to have a deal with an aerial bombardment, at least in the early stages

“So far, Wales have started by kicking a lot and then the game has opened up for them more in the second half,” he said. “So we've got to deal with their threats, we've got to deal with their set-piece threats. But we're aware too it's a 23-man game, we're pleased with the starters we're putting out this weekend but also the impact those guys off the bench can make.”

While Scotland managed to fix their Roman lineout issues against England, the scrum continued to be a problem. The selection of Dave Cherry at hooker should help at the set-piece but they will miss Jamie Ritchie, not least at the lineout and in general. Jack Dempsey is also missing which strips the back row of some of its potency.

With Gregor Brown moving from four to six, the opportunity opens up for Max Williamson in the second row and the Glasgow Warriors lock deserves his chance.

With the roof shut and a bigger crowd expected than turned up last week to see Wales host France, Saturday’s game will not be one for the faint-hearted. The Principality is the noisiest stadium on the Six Nations circuit and Scotland must ensure they give as little as possible for the home supporters to shout about, particularly in the opening stages.

Townsend’s side’s attacking arsenal outguns anything the hosts can offer but recent history suggests that any dip in Scotland’s intensity could make it an uncomfortable afternoon.

Wales v Scotland teams

Wales: 15. L Rees-Zammit (Bristol); 14. G Hamer-Webb (Leicester), 13. E James, 12. J Hawkins (both Scarlets), 11. J Adams (Cardiff); 10. S Costelow (Scarlets), 9. T Williams (Gloucester); 1. R Carre (Saracens), 2. D Lake (Ospreys, capt), 3. T Francis (Provence), 4. D Jenkins (Exeter), 5. B Carter (Dragons), 6. T Plumtree (Scarlets), 7. A Mann (Cardiff), 8. A Wainwright (Dragons). Replacements: 16. R Elias (Scarlets), 17. N Smith (Leicester), 18. A Griffin (Bath), 19. F Thomas (Gloucester), 20. J Botham (Cardiff), 21. K Hardy (Ospreys), 22. J Evans, 23. B Murray (Scarlets).

Scotland: 15. Blair Kinghorn (Toulouse); 14. Kyle Steyn (Glasgow), 13. Huw Jones (Glasgow), 12. Sione Tuipulotu (Glasgow; capt), 11. Duhan van der Merwe (Edinburgh); 10. Finn Russell (Bath; vice-capt), 9. Ben White (Toulon); 1. Nathan McBeth (Glasgow), 2. Dave Cherry (Vannes), 3. Zander Fagerson (Glasgow), 4. Max Williamson (Glasgow), 5. Scott Cummings (Glasgow), 6. Gregor Brown (Glasgow), 7. Rory Darge (Glasgow; vice-capt), 8. Matt Fagerson (Glasgow). Replacements: 16. George Turner (Harlequins), 17. Pierre Schoeman (Edinburgh), 18. Elliot Millar Mills (Northampton), 19. Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh), 20. Josh Bayliss (Bath), 21. George Horne (Glasgow), 22. Tom Jordan (Bristol), 23. Darcy Graham (Edinburgh).

Referee: Matthew Carley (Eng).

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