Scotland's 9 takeaways from November Tests - emerging starters, mentality doubts and Townsend future

After the nature of the defeat against Argentina the week before, the match against Tonga presented the perfect opportunity to finish the Autumn Series with purpose and momentum, but despite the big scoreline, Scotland were less than convincing for the first 50 minutes and struggled to make their advantage over Tonga’s 14 men pay for almost 40 minutes.

Off the pitch, the game can certainly be seen as a success. Less than a decade ago, Scotland were having to take games against Tonga and Georgia to other venues around the country because they couldn’t expect to even half fill Murrayfield. On Sunday, there were 60,000 in attendance, a sign, if ever there was one, of just how much progress Scottish rugby has made on and off the pitch in recent years.

Rae of hope and impressive Dobie

The autumn series is over and I don't think we’ve learned much more about this Scotland team as a collective, although there were some notable individual performances.

Jamie Dobie has been very good and continued to show why he has become integral to Glasgow over the last few seasons. Whether at scrum half or on the wing, it is very difficult to make an argument for him not to be involved in any match day 23. D’arcy Rae also had a very solid autumn. Scotland had tighthead issues going into the campaign, with Zander Fagerson recovering from injury and concerns around who could step in.

Scotland still struggles to replace the all-round game Zander provides when fit, what team wouldn’t, but D’arcy’s performances in the tight showed how far he’s developed since coming back to Scotland after his stint at Bath.

Ewan Ashman has stepped up

I was really impressed by Ewan Ashman throughout the Autumn. He’s had criticism over the last few years around his lineout work, but barring a couple of misfires, he was accurate and clearly has put a lot of hard work into this area of his game.

He was excellent around the pitch, more dynamic in attack than I have seen him before. Always available to carry, he has started picking excellent running lines, particularly off nine and has a great turn of pace to add to his power in the collision. He was Scotland’s top try-scorer across the series with five: one against New Zealand and doubles against Argentina and Tonga. He now has 14 Test tries, more than any other Scotland men’s forward in the history of the national side.

Second row promise

Both second-rowers who started against Tonga, Alex Samuel and Max Williamson, were both good. And it probably begs the question why one of them - I'd probably suggest Max - wasn't involved earlier in the series against New Zealand and Argentina. Gregor Brown was covering the second row against Argentina whilst starting at 6, a gamble that didn’t pay off when he was forced off early with an injury.

Scott Cummings and Grant Gilchrist are the established pairing, but I think we have missed an opportunity to give valuable experience and competition amongst the second row group over the last few weeks.

If you look at how England and South Africa, for example, have managed to drip-feed in some of the new young players into the team and provide them with big game experience over the last 18 months and how they are now reaping the benefit.

Back three no longer set in stone

One of the biggest takeaways from the series is the selection dilemma around the back three. Blair Kinghorn, Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham have been Scotland’s go to trio over the last few years but the performances of all three, and the performances of Kyle Steyn and Kyle Rowe in particular, have really thrown it up in the air. Kyle Steyn has played well, has been one of Glasgow’s best and most consistent performers over the last few seasons and is now replicating that form on the international stage. Kyle Rowe as well, has always performed when asked, is great aerially and has an excellent short kicking game.

Ritchie underlines his quality

Jamie Ritchie showed up well against Tonga, underlining the quality player he is. That was his 61st cap but it was the first time we'd seen him in this campaign.

He is in France now, with Perpignan, and I think that will help him grow even more. He was Scotland’s captain at the last World Cup, and it has been a surprise not to have seen him more over the last four weeks.

He had some nice touches on Sunday and I wonder if he's more of a seven now, rather than a six?

Knitting it all together

There are a lot of options in the Scotland back row and you could say that about a few areas of the team but it's about knitting it all together.

Scotland is still a team that are devastating in transition attack and counter-attack, but I still feel like they struggle to break teams down in longer phase play when defences are set or inside the opposition’s 22 from slow ball.

We don't have the power of England, France or South Africa up front who can bludgeon holes in the opposition defence, so how we break the top teams down is still an area for improvement.

When Scotland have quick ball, when they're on the front foot, or they're in transition, and they've got the ball out wide, they look dangerous. But whenever teams manage to suffocate them and put a wall in front of them, they don't seem to be able to break them down.

Mental toughness (or lack of)

There was a lot of talk this week from the squad about how there were a lot of hard conversations in the aftermath of the Argentina game, and that lessons had been learnt. It’s a very easy thing to say off the back of what will have been a very difficult week internally. It is never that simple, though, and the proof is always in the pudding. The mental side of the game will always be a focal point for those inside and outside of the camp. It is always the case for any team and will only go away when you become winners, and consistent winners at that. It’s not something you can fix in two or three days.

Gregor Townsend’s future

There has also been a lot of speculation around the future of Gregor Townsend after the loss to Argentina. What he has done for Scotland and the national team over the last 8 years has been excellent. The style of play, attracting fans back into Murrayfield, some of the one-off performances which have re-ignited long since forgotten rivalries, has given the Scottish rugby public a team to be proud of. I don’t think there is any appetite for change at Murrayfiled, but what is certain is that a lot will hinge on performances and more importantly, wins in the 6 Nations.

They need a top-three finish but it’ll be tough. England will be much better this season. Ireland are still a good team even if they did get battered by the Springboks. France are a very, very good team. And playing Italy in Rome in the opener is going to be a hell of a game.

As for Wales, they can't be worse than last year. They'll be more organised with more energy about them and it’s never an easy fixture, as we know. The win in Cardiff in 2024 was Scotland’s first in the Welsh capital in 22 years and we were hanging on in the second half.

If Scotland were to finish fourth or fifth - or worse - in the Six Nations, it would suggest that there's been zero progress. From a national team point of view, we need to win something, or we need to at least be in the conversation to win something. People might not like hearing it, but that’s the reality of it.

Great expectations

I saw Gregor's comments after the Tonga game and the suggestion that some felt we were ‘entitled’ to be beating the best teams in the world. Well, the expectation levels have been set by this team. They’ve beaten England and France and performed extremely well against the All Blacks.

We can beat anyone on our day and when that doesn't happen, I don’t think you can turn around and accuse people of having expectations which are too high. I think we should be expecting Scotland to compete and sometimes win against these teams but there is no sense of entitlement. It was the manner of the collapse against Argentina that got to everyone and it has made this autumn series pretty deflating.

Some of that comes down to the fixtures as well. Why play USA and Tonga in the same campaign? We said this a couple of weeks ago but if Scotland want to be one of the best, they have to play against the best more regularly.

It’s difficult to improve when you are playing two tier-two opponents.