My Scotland v France score prediction and three key areas where game will be decided - Fraser Brown

Gregor Townsend’s side may not have reached quite the same heights against France at Murrayfield as they have in some of their victories over England, but they have still produced several strong performances, winning in Edinburgh in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2023. They lost 20-16 two years ago and there is no need to revisit the Sam Skinner non-try incident, but it remains a game Scotland should probably have won.

Scotland will take confidence from back-to-back victories over England and Wales and they will have opportunities to attack France because they are likely to receive plenty of counter-attacking ball.

There is a slight sense that France may have one eye on the following week and a potential Grand Slam decider against England in Paris. Much of the messaging from the French camp last week centred on the launch of their special kit marking the 120th anniversary of their first ever game against England. Will this weekend against Scotland be seen as a stepping stone before Le Crunch and a French Grand Slam?

Where Murrayfield match will be won and lost

There are probably three key areas that will determine the outcome of Saturday’s game at Murrayfield.

The first is the lineout. France have won all three of their matches with a bonus point so it may seem slightly churlish to criticise, but their lineout and maul have not been quite as dominant as expected. Ireland caused them real problems in that area in the opening game and had a fair amount of success there.

The scrum will also be a major battleground and, again, France have not shown the dominance many expected. Both Irish front rows arguably had the upper hand against them, even if the decisions did not always reflect that. Two weeks ago, the French scrum was also put under significant pressure by Italy, who went after them aggressively.

Unfortunately for Italy, they did not appear to receive much reward from the officials. It may come down to reputation. The way France have been refereed has arguably been influenced by perception to some extent. At the start of the tournament, they were widely viewed as particularly strong up front and that may have worked in their favour.

Scotland need to stabilise their scrum

Scotland, of course, have had issues of their own at scrum-time. It remains to be seen which direction Townsend goes with selection because he has some significant decisions to make. None of the front rows have fully established themselves during the tournament and there have been struggles at times across the board. There is certainly room for improvement for Scotland and it is an area that will be fiercely contested.

As a unit, the French props haven’t consistently got ascendancy in any of their opening three games and that may be an area Scotland believe they can target.

If Scotland are to exploit any potential weakness there, Townsend will need his most experienced and in-form scrummagers on the field to stabilise their own set-piece first and then look to apply pressure on the French front row.

The third key area — and probably the one that will have the greatest influence on the game — is how Scotland deal with France’s attacking kicking strategy, led by Antoine Dupont who can kick superbly off both feet and is a constant threat.

France have been exceptionally effective with their contestable kicking game. When they kick in attack they are retaining roughly a quarter of those kicks, which is a significant figure. With the ball being kicked anywhere up to 24 to 30 times in a Test match, France are regaining four or more of their own kicks every game and this can be hugely influential in terms of territory and pressure.

How to counter France’s kicking threat

Their pack selection has also been shaped by that approach to a certain extent. France have used Charles Ollivon in the second row, even though he is primarily a back-row forward. They are trying to get as many back-row-type players on the field at once. They bring high skill levels, strong work rates and the ability to chase kicks and recover quickly behind the ball.

Even when the catch is not clean, France are often in position to counter-attack immediately. They have done that extremely well throughout the tournament. In the opening game against Ireland they launched several attacks from messy, contestable kicks simply because of how hard they were working behind the ball.

One potential way for Scotland to counter that threat may be to adopt a longer kicking game rather than trying to compete directly with France’s contestable kicking from the base of the ruck. France have been extremely effective at regaining those kicks from nine, so Scotland may instead look to put the ball deeper and force France to play from their own half.

There is a risk in that approach because longer kicks can give France time and space to counter-attack. However, it would force them to kick from deeper areas of the field and could reduce the effectiveness of their kicking pressure.

It may also help bring Scotland’s biggest attacking weapons into the game. If Scotland can limit the influence of the French kicking game from scrum-half while creating opportunities for Blair Kinghorn, Darcy Graham, Kyle Steyn and Duhan van der Merwe to attack broken-field ball, it could shift the balance of the contest.

Options in the back three

Scotland have strong options in the back three and it was Steyn, van der Merwe and Kinghorn who dealt well with that challenge against Wales.

Jamie Dobie is excellent in the air but he is currently injured, while Kyle Rowe is probably one of Scotland’s best players under the high ball yet has not had many opportunities.

For van der Merwe, the aerial contest is an area of his game he has been working hard to improve and there has been clear progress. When teams kick towards him — and they do so frequently — they take a calculated risk. If the kick is not perfectly placed it gives him time and space to get into the game, so there is always a risk-reward element involved.

With France, everything revolves around Dupont. He is such an outstanding player and such a threat. He moves with the ball three or four yards, drawing defenders and bringing others into the game, with players feeding off his decisions.

He also reduces the creative burden on Matthieu Jalibert at fly-half. Often the key decision has already been made by the time the ball reaches him. He simply receives it in space and has the opportunity to attack.

For Scotland, the Six Nations is effectively on the line this weekend. If they beat France, they travel to Dublin the following week with a chance to win the title. No Scotland side has had that opportunity on the final weekend of a Six Nations.

That is the reality of the situation now, which makes this France match absolutely pivotal.

There will undoubtedly be changes. Townsend has selected three different starting hookers in three matches: Ewan Ashman against Italy, George Turner against England and Dave Cherry against Wales. None has firmly established himself.

I suspect Pierre Schoeman will start. He made an early impact after coming on against Wales and, on the other side of the scrum, Zander Fagerson will almost certainly begin the match.

Will Gregor Brown move back into the second row alongside Scott Cummings? How fit is Jack Dempsey? Available for selection or there to continue his rehab and hopefully be fit for the trip to Dublin.

Josh Bayliss performed well when he came on in Cardiff and may well start in the back row alongside Rory Darge and Matt Fagerson. Magnus Bradbury may also have forced himself into contention after an impressive performance for Edinburgh at the weekend, which will not have gone unnoticed by the Scotland coaches.

Kyle Steyn will likely be on one wing with Darcy Graham on the other. He may get the nod ahead of van der Merwe. Blair Kinghorn will probably start at full-back and there is probably a straight contest between Kyle Rowe and Tom Jordan for a place on the bench.

I can see Scotland edging it, perhaps something like 24-22. France will almost certainly score a couple of tries, but Scotland have the attacking threat to do the same. They should find space to exploit at times. It will be tight, but Scotland may just have enough to get over the line.

Get 50% off an annual subscription to The Scotsman and a chance to win a Scotland rugby shirt as part of our Six Nations deal. Subscribe to unlock full access to our website today.