Lions whitewash beckons but expect changes as key Scot proves his fitness

The fabled squad of 1974 returned home from South Africa unbeaten but they didn’t win all their matches against the Springboks. The fourth (and final) Test finished in a draw after the Lions had won the previous three.

There will be a clamour from the outside to reward those in his British and Irish Lions squad who have just missed out on selection in the first two matches against the Wallabies, with media from each of the four participating nations banging the drum for their own players.

Farrell is likely to find it fairly easy to block out external noise and my hunch is that he will try to keep changes to a minimum when he reveals his hand on Thursday. He doesn’t seem the type to be swayed by sentiment and the chance to complete a 3-0 series win is far too big an opportunity to be potentially compromised by tinkering with a winning team.

Having said that, two gruelling games against the Wallabies will have taken their toll on the players and those who played through injuries in the second match are unlikely to do so again in what is effectively a dead rubber.

The famous side of 1997 was the last Lions team to go into the final Test with a 2-0 lead and on that occasion Ian McGeechan made five changes to his starting side for the third match against South Africa which was lost 35-16. Farrell is likely to make a similar number of alterations for the game in Sydney knowing a victory would elevate his squad to exalted status.

Back three

Hugo Keenan’s ability to find the energy and strength to score the match-winning try in the final minute of the second Test was as much a testament to the Irish full-back’s mental resolve as his physical conditioning. It was a wonderful score in the circumstances and there is little to suggest he won’t keep the jersey in Sydney.

The wing berths are less clear-cut. James Lowe has not been as dangerous as some would have wished and struggled under the high ball on occasions in the first Test. Tommy Freeman, on the other flank, has been more impressive and was sorely missed when he went to the sin-bin in the first half in Melbourne. Mack Hansen is fit again after recovering from a foot injury and is a favourite of Farrell’s. Blair Kinghorn impressed off the bench on Saturday and should retain his place in the squad but could also come into contention for a start on the wing, the position he has played in regularly for Toulouse. Duhan van der Merwe would appear to be an outside bet to be involved.

Centres

A big dilemma here for Farrell. Does he stick with the Bundee Aki-Huw Jones combination that worked well in the second Test, or does he bring back the fit-again Sione Tuipulotu to link up with Jones?

The Scotland pair played together in the first Test, with Tuipulotu scoring the opening try and Jones being unfortunate to have one disallowed. Tuipulotu was ruled out of the second game with a tight hamstring and Farrell intended to drop Jones in favour of Garry Ringrose only for the Irish centre to report concussion symptoms. Jones was reprieved and responded magnificently with a fine try in the win in Melbourne.

Ringrose has still not recovered so Farrell must perm two from Tuipulotu, Aki and Jones. Precedent suggests he likes to keep international team-mates together in the centre but that wasn’t possible in the second Test and it turned out fine.

Half-backs

It would be a major surprise if Finn Russell and Jamison Gibson-Park did not start together for the third Test in a row. The pair dominated the first Test and while Australia offered far stiffer resistance in Melbourne, Russell and Gibson-Park still came out on top.

Alex Mitchell has understudied Gibson-Park in both Tests but did not get off the bench in the second match and is likely to be given a decent run in Sydney. Ben White, a late addition to the squad after an injury to Tomos Williams, has impressed in the non-Test games but it will be hard for the Scotland scrum-half to dislodge either Gibson-Park or Mitchell.

Owen Farrell can cover any of the midfield roles and is another who is likely to feature in the second half.

Front row

Dan Sheehan has been a hugely important player for the Lions with a try in each Test and the hooker was part of an all-Irish front row at the weekend, in between Andrew Porter and Tadhg Furlong. If all are fit, it could be same again in Sydney, with back-up from Ronan Kelleher, Ellis Genge and Will Stuart. Pierre Schoeman will be hoping for a chance but is only likely to be called upon if Porter or Genge are injured.

Second row

Maro Itoje had Joe McCarthy alongside him in the first Test but the Irish lock was replaced by Ollie Chessum for the second match after picking up a foot injury. He is fit again which could see him return to the starting XV in Sydney.

Scott Cummings has had some strong performances but James Ryan was preferred to the Glasgow Warriors man when a vacancy opened up on the bench in the second Test.

Back row

The back row of Tadhg Beirne, Tom Curry and Jack Conan has been one of the tour’s great success stories, with Curry in particular excelling. Like Sheehan, he has scored a try in each Test. But this might be an area of the team Farrell might consider freshening up. Jac Morgan was excellent off the bench on Saturday and there will also be a clamour for Henry Pollock to be involved. It would be no surprise if the Northampton Saints tyro was on the bench.

My Lions team for third Test

Lions: H Keenan (Ire); B Kinghorn (Sco), H Jones (Sco), S Tuipulotu (Sco), M Hansen (Ire); F Russell (Sco), J Gibson-Park (Ire); A Porter (Ire), D Sheehan (Ire), T Furlong (Ire), M Itoje (Eng), J McCarthy (Ire), J Morgan (Wal), T Curry (Eng), J Conan (Ire).

Replacements: R Kelleher (Ire), E Genge (Eng), W Stuart (Eng), J Ryan (Ire), H Pollock (Eng), A Mitchell (Eng), O Farrell (Eng), B Aki (Ire).