History awaits high-flying Scotland as Springbok rotation offers unlikely opportunity in Pretoria

For the best part of a decade this core group of players have seemingly been on the precipice of levelling up to a side that can truly and regularly compete with the top Test nations. It has been within their grasp more times than many would care to count during Gregor Townsend’s nine year spell as head coach.

Most recently was this year’s Six Nations where, after hugely impressive wins over England and France, the momentum was undone by familiar foes as Ireland denied them the Triple Crown in Dublin. It doesn’t quite put things all the way back to square one but it’s easy to see why the Scots were written off as serious contenders in the inaugural edition of this latest international rugby competition.

Scotland still underdogs in Pretoria but inexperienced Springboks side gives cause for optimism

It’s that recent history that prevents those of us who have witnessed false dawn after false dawn from puffing out our chests and saying what, deep down, we probably believe. Scotland have a realistic shot of a historic win against South Africa this weekend.

Rassie Erasmus has rung the changes in his 23-man Springboks squad for the Test with one eye on next year’s Rugby World Cup and that should offer their visitors a far greater chance at a positive result than would have been the case against their more familiar names. Of course, there can be no doubt, even a second string Boks’ side complemented by a handful of their elite stars like Pieter-Steph du Toit and Jesse Kriel are still a top five Test level side in the current international rugby landscape.

Scotland aren’t favourites by any stretch of the imagination but there are a few other points to observe that can give you a sense of how competitive a contest this should end up being. One thing to consider is the Scots away record which has been at best patchy and at worst a true Achilles heel of Townsend’s tenure.

Plenty of nations have been able to turn their home venues into fortresses but the very best teams combine that with strong records on the road. Scotland have shown they can win away from home against many of the top nations, including France and England, but it has been far from consistent.

This year though they’ve picked up wins against Wales at the Principality, a venue that has famously been difficult for them to handle in the past, and last week against Los Pumas in Cordoba. Defeats to Italy in Rome and Ireland in Dublin puts them at 50 percent on the road in 2026 but there are signs of promise there.

Loftus Versfeld is a famously intimidating venue but almost every player in the squad has experience of playing there since the Bulls joined the United Rugby Championship and EPCR. They know about the altitude and the Glasgow Warriors contingent know how to win there having lifted the URC title in Pretoria in 2024.

South Africa v Scotland throws up mouthwatering individual battles across the field

Experience also plays a factor here when going back to the two 23-man squads that have been named. The Springboks have 445 caps in their starting XV to Scotland's 628 and four individuals count for over half of the Boks’ total.

Meanwhile, the player in the Scotland starting line-up with the fewest caps is Rory Hutchinson (12) who has been around the squad regularly since 2019 and has not played more purely due to such strong competition for places in midfield. He showed last week in Cordoba how naturally Test level rugby comes to him especially on the back of winning the Gallagher Premiership with Northampton Saints this season.

Seven of the Boks’ starting XV have less than ten caps each while their replacements combine for 69 caps compared to the nearly doubled figure of 136 on Scotland’s bench. The combined experience advantage clearly falls in the favour of the Scots as do many important individual battles.

The South Africa forwards pack and replacements remains incredibly formidable, demonstrating just how ludicrously impressive their strength in depth is. That being said, their starting tight-five and replacements is missing almost all of the regular names we are accustomed to being wowed by.

Cobus Wiese at lock and Johan Grobbelaar at hooker are two players who have been excellent in the URC for Stormers and Bulls respectively this season but they are not yet close to the level of counterparts of Eben Etzebeth and Malcolm Marx. That’s no criticism by the way, those are some very big shoes to fill and quite literally so in the case of Etzebeth.

Naming a 6-2 bench split was undoubtedly the correct call from Gregor Townsend and when you look at the two starting packs and replacements it’s a far more even affair than had the Boks called upon more of their big guns. It’s going to be a fascinating contest in the front row and at lock but particularly that back-row battle which pits the Glasgow trio of Dempsey, Darge and Fagerson against two URC standouts for the Stormers in Paul de Villiers and Evan Roos and the best in the world in Du Toit.

As for the backs, Finn Russell’s return at stand-off only strengthens a back line that was so impressive last time out against Argentina so the Scots need to do everything they can to play their game and get the ball in the hands of their playmakers quickly and early. Of course, they won’t be the first side to try this against the Boks, who are masters at shutting down that sort of style, but try they must as it’s undoubtedly their best path to success.

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