What Scotland need from Nations League campaign to boost 2026 World Cup qualification chances

It is the first time a Scotland team has competed in the top tier of the biennal competition since it was introduced by UEFA in 2018 as a replacement for meaningless international friendlies.

It is a tournament that has benefited Scotland in the past, particularly when it came to qualification for Euro 2020, when the fallback of a play-off secured through the Nations League was utilised to reach a major finals for the first time since 1998 thanks to a penalty shootout victory over Serbia in Belgrade.

Scotland have progressed through from Nations League C to A over the course of six years, earning promotion from Nations League B in 2022 after finishing top of a group featuring Ukraine, Republic of Ireland and Armenia.

Now they find themselves among Europe's elite in the top rung of the Nations League ladder having been drawn in a section alongside Poland, Portugal and Croatia. Steve Clarke’s side will play each opponent home and away, six fixtures in total, over the course of the next three international windows before the end of the year. First up is Poland at Hampden on Thursday followed by a quick turnaround with a trip to Lisbon to face Portugal on Sunday.

But what are Scotland actually competing for in Nations League A? Well, the first goal will be to avoid relegation back to Nations League B, which would mean not finishing bottom of the section.

Thinking more postivitely, teams who finish in the top two positions of each of the four Nations League A groups will qualify for a quarter-final knock-out phase. There would then follow semi-finals and a final where the winning team woud lift the Nations League trophy, currently held by Spain.

Achieving a top two finish could also provide a major boost to Scotland's hopes of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup in the USA, Canada and Mexico. That’s after a 'leaked' FIFA document suggested that the top eight Nations League A sides will also be granted Pot 1 seeding status for the 2026 World Cup qualification draw.

For Scotland, that means a top two finish would ensure they avoid facing any of the other Pot 1 sides in World Cup qualification. When you consider that only the qualification group winners will secure direct entry to the 2026 finals, with the runners-up going into play-offs, then that could be a crucial advantage as Scotland would avoid sharing a group with the European heavyweights.

Finishing the Nations League campaign in third or fourth place would likely result in Scotland receiving a Pot 3 seeding for World Cup qualification due to their FIFA world ranking, which would make qualifying even tougher with two nations seeded above them.

The document also suggests that the final World Cup qualification line up wouldn't be confirmed until after the Nations League quarter-finals are played in March with FIFA using "placeholders" in the draw.

A screenshot from the apparent FIFA document posted on X showed plans for the seeding process.

It read: "To draw the 12 groups of four and five teams each, five draw pots will be formed. Pots 1 to 4 will each contain 12 teams and the remaining seven teams will be in Pot 5.

"The allocation of teams to the five pots will be announced by FIFA after consultation with UEFA after the conclusion of the UNL league phase on 19 November 2024 and ahead of the EQ draw. The following rules apply:

"Pot 1: The eight UNL quarter-finalists ("UNL QF") are seeded in Pot 1, irrespective of their rank in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking applicable for the draw.

"The UNL QF participants will be represented by placeholders for the EQ draw. Each placeholder represents either the winner or the defeated team of a QF pairing. The UNL QF pairings will have been drawn in advance by UEFA on 22 November 2024.

"The four remaining teams of Pot 1 are the best-ranked teams of the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking that are not involved in the UNL QF.

"Pots 2-5: "The teams not allocated to Pot 1 will, in principle, save for the necessary pot adjustments, be allocated to pots 2-5 according to the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking.

"Pot 2: contains the next 12 best-ranked teams in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking;

"Pot 3: contains the following 12 ranked teams in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking;

"Pot 4: contains the following 12 ranked teams in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking;

"Pot 5: contains the remaining seven teams in the FIFA/Coca-Cola Men's World Ranking.

"Depending on the number of teams in each pot that need to be available to play in the UNL promotion/relegation play-offs in March 2025, draw pot adjustments may be required."