Scotland’s coefficient 'cliff edge': Why so much rests on Celtic, Rangers, Hearts, Kilmarnock and St Mirren

Kilmarnock and St Mirren are both in Conference League action on Thursday, taking on Tromso and Brann respectively, in the first leg of their third round qualifying ties.

If the two Premiership clubs can overcome their rivals from Norway’s Eliteserien they will go through to the play-off round, and a victory there would secure a place in the league stage of the revamped European competition which guarantees another six matches.

If either or both can make it that far it would provide a vital shot in the arm for our coefficient which if not quite on life support is certainly in A&E. Scotland are currently ranked 17th in the coefficient rankings which Uefa uses to calculate how many teams from each country will participate in the Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League and at which round they enter.

The Uefa ranking determines the number of teams competing in the season after the next, not in the first season after the publication of the ranking. Thus, the rankings at the end of the 2022-23 campaign determined the team allocation in 2024-25.

This coefficient is calculated from the results of the clubs in the three Uefa club competitions over the past five seasons, with two points awarded for each win by a club, and one for a draw (points are halved in the qualifying rounds). The number of points awarded each season is then divided by the number of teams that participated for that association in that season.

Rangers’ draw with Dynamo Kyiv in Poland in the Champions League third round qualifier on Tuesday night added 0.1 points to Scotland's coefficient to take the season’s total to 1.7, with the rest of it being made up from St Mirren’s win and draw with Valur, Kilmarnock’s draw with Cercle Brugge and Celtic’s reward for qualifying directly for the Champions League which accounts for 1.2 of the 1.7 points.

It can be a complicated process and painstaking work done by bloggers such as Bert Kassies in the Netherlands and, in this country, the Scotland’s Coefficient feed on X, provides an invaluable resource for supporters and journalists alike.

The latter described Scotland's coefficient as being “on a cliff edge heading into this season”. That’s because if we finished the campaign outside the top 15 then no Scottish club is guaranteed league phase football any more, which is something we’ve become used to in recent seasons and is what Celtic, Rangers and Hearts will have in the current campaign.

Instead the Scottish champions would possibly have to negotiate three Champions League qualifiers, second place would have three Conference League qualifiers, and the Scottish Cup winners would have four Europa League qualifiers.

Rangers and Celtic have done the bulk of the heavy lifting when it comes to winning Scotland’s coefficient points, with Rangers in particular playing a key role. The Ibrox club got to the Europa League final in 2022 and have also reached the last 16 of the same competition a further three times in the last five seasons. Their exploits account for just over half of Scotland’s 36.05 coefficient points. Celtic have contributed 10.625 points while the rest of the Scottish clubs chip in with 6.85.

It means the clubs outside the big two accounted for 19 per cent of the coefficient points over the last five years so have a crucial role to play and it’s why the games against the two Norwegian opponents are so important. If Kilmarnock can overcome Tromso, who are a lowly 13th of 16 teams in the Norwegian top flight, they will face Copenhagen or Banik Ostrava in the play-off round. St Mirren look to have a far tougher task against Brann who are second in the Eliteserien which is just past its halfway point. If the Saints can win against the team from Bergen they will meet Corvinul Hunedoara of Romania or Astana of Kazakhstan for a place in the group stage.

Both Scottish teams travel to Norway next week for the second legs. Hearts don’t enter the fray until the play-off round of the Europa League where they will meet either Czech side Viktoria Plzeň or Ukrainian team Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih. Win or lose, the Tynecastle club are guaranteed league stage football which means eight matches in the Europa League or six matches in the Conference League in the revamped format.

Celtic have direct entry into the Champions League league stage and will play eight league stage matches. The draw is on August 29.