Scotland's awkward scenario in World Cup no-man's land looms larger
Clarke and Co may need favours from others while they wait in basecamp for clarity
Well, it was never going to be that straightforward, was it?
Scotland's quest to make history on Friday night didn't quite happen. A 1-0 defeat by Morocco leaves Steve Clarke's men on three points after two matches in Group C at this World Cup. They sit third in the standings going into the final match with Brazil on Wednesday.
A victory over Morocco would have guaranteed a place in the last 32 and knockout football for this nation at a major tournament for the very first time. A draw would have pretty much secured it.
Until the last 20 minutes in Foxborough, Scotland were second best against a Moroccan side that dominated and then took their eye off the ball. Scotland had legitimate claims for a penalty kick after challenges on John McGinn and Scott McTominay in the second half but stubborn Uzbek referee Ilgiz Tantashev waved both away.
It means all eyes turn to Miami, where Scotland do it all again in the Florida heat against one of the best international teams going.
To be honest, Clarke and his players may well have agreed to this scenario before the tournament kicked off. They took care of business in a high-stakes, high-pressure encounter against Haitians and avoided a sore defeat against Morocco, ranked sixth in the world. Brazil and Morocco have four points, Scotland have three and Haiti are out of the equation on zero.
A point against Brazil will give Scotland a 99 per cent chance of qualifying as one of the eight best third-placed teams in the tournament, although that can’t be officially confirmed until other groups are completed. Finishing on third with three points and a negative goal difference makes it more complicated.
Ending on -1 goals would be palatable but not perfect. Anything worse and it opens up the possibility of Scotland being gazumped by sides in Groups D-L who have the advantage of playing after the Scots have finished up and knowing what is required to qualify.
It is a uncomfortable situation for Scotland, to be holed up in their Charlotte basecamp praying for favours from elsewhere. It is why any sort of positive result against Brazil would be one of the greatest in this nation’s history.
How do you Scotland get something off Brazil?
The more you watch this World Cup, the more you realise that Scotland landed very unlucky with this group. Morocco and Brazil are both ranked inside the top ten, and Haiti proved spirited and at times sprightly opponents. It’s a group of death.
To emphasise the point, Clarke and his coaching staff now must devise a way past Brazil. While this version of the Selecao are not of the vintage variety, they are still laden with attacking threats, most notably Vinicius Jnr. If they didn’t quite click in the 1-1 draw with Morocco, they put Haiti to bed pretty comfortably.
Scotland certainly didn’t do enough to beat Morocco. Not one shot on target was registered and they were forced to defend for long periods. Technically, they were inferior, but showed togetherness and a tough mentality to stay in the fight. Towards the end, the Scots put Morocco under pressure - but there wasn’t one tangible chance created.
Clarke’s tactics have understandably been questioned. He switched from a far more attack-minded 4-4-2 against Haiti to a 4-5-1 that was designed to contain Morocco. Clarke’s detractors are lambasting him for being too negative but the reality is straightforward: open up against the sixth best team in the world and Scotland will be ripped to shreds. Scotland could not afford to be cavalier.
Clarke now has to wrestle with whether he goes with the same approach against Brazil - the seventh best team on the planet. For all of Morocco’s splendour, they are not a team that scores a bagful of goals. They do not attack with the same rapier-like edge that Brazil contain. Scotland may see more of the ball against Carlo Ancelotti’s team but they will almost certainly be forced to ride out more danger.
The omission of winger Ben Gannon-Doak raised eyebrows against Morocco and given he is the only player in the team with bona-fide X-factor when on the ball, many Scotland fans will want him to be on the pitch from the start against Brazil. Scotland do look more offensive with him in the team and while his work-rate has improved defensively, you lose some of team’s compactness when he plays.
Should Clarke opt to switch to back three, then there is little room for a winger. Aaron Hickey potentially comes back in as a right wing-back. Kieran Tierney limped off against Morocco and if he is injured, then it creates another poser for the coaching staff.
Then there is the striking department. Clarke has five No 9s at his disposal and so far, none of them have looked like scoring. Lawrence Shankland, the most in-form of them, was jettisoned from the starting XI against Morocco but he may re-enter Clarke’s thoughts. As could Lyndon Dykes, whose physicality could ruffle up the feathers of Gabriel and Marquinhos, Brazil’s much-vaunted centre-half pairing. Although the sight of a shaven-headed hitman from Charlton Athletic may not overly concern two centre-halves who three weeks ago contested the Champions League final.
Scotland have done so well to get to the World Cup. Their fans have won the hearts of Boston and beyond. With the team tantalisingly close to the knockout stages, how the Brazil match is approached is going to dominate the agenda.
This is not an easy task. Should Scotland find a way through it, they more than deserve their place in the last 32. Just be prepared for it to go right to the wire. It’s the Scottish way, after all.
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