Scotland World Cup draw: Group of death, winnable one, supercomputer prediction and personal choice

The nation has been gripped by World Cup fever since the magical Hampden high of 12 days ago when a dramatic 4-2 win over Denmark secured automatic qualification for next summer's tournament in the USA, Canada and Mexico.

Now all eyes and ears will be tuned into events at the Kennedy Center in Washington DC at 5pm on Friday when Scotland will discover who they will face in their three group matches - and where the games will be played.

The 2026 tournament will be the biggest ever with 48 nations taking part across 12 groups of four and an additional round of 32 added to the schedule.

Scotland will aim to make history by making it to the knockout stages of a major finals for the first time. There has never been a better chance to do so with the top two and eight best third-placed sides progressing beyond the group phase. Scotland have been placed into pot three and cannot be drawn against fellow third seeds Norway, Panama, Egypt, Algeria, Paraguay, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia or South Africa.

No group will have more than one team from the same federation in it, except UEFA, which will have a maximum of two, due to the fact that 16 teams will be participating in the tournament.

Here are four potential draw outcomes for Scotland...

The Group of Death - Argentina, Morocco, Italy, Scotland

The prospect of facing the defending world champions and the top-ranked African nation would be daunting enough for Scotland. But throw Italy into the mix - the highest ranked side involved in the play-offs - then it becomes an even tougher challenge for Steve Clarke's side to acquire the points needed to reach the knockout phase. Of course, there are no guarantees the Italians will make it. Rino Gattuso's outfit have to beat Northern Ireland at home in their play-off semi-final and then the winner of Bosnia v Wales away in March to book their place, but they are favourites to do so. Scotland would be expected to finish bottom of this group and would need to produce at least one seismic result to avoid elimination.

The Winnable Group - Canada, Scotland, Haiti, Australia

Drawing Canada - the lowest ranked pot one nation - would appear, on paper, to be Scotland's easiest draw. However, facing the joint hosts in their June 12 opener at Toronto's BMO Field would come with the added complication of a frenzied home crowd. Canada, of course, are no pushovers. They reached the semi-finals of the 2024 Copa America but would be a less intimidating opponent than the other two hosts, Mexico and USA.

Likewise, Australia are the lowest ranked nation in pot two and would present Scotland with another winnable match against a side likely to feature some current and former SPFL players.

While New Caledonia are the lowest ranked side still left in qualification (149th), they need to win two play-off ties in March to get through to their first World Cup. The tiny island nation from the Oceanic federation face Jamaica in their semi-final with DR Congo awaiting in the final. Of the teams who have already qualified, Haiti (84th) would be the lowest Fifa ranked side Scotland could face from pot four. They topped a qualifying group featuring Honduras, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

The Supercomputer Group: Argentina, Jordan, Scotland, Morocco

We used a simulator that factored all FIFA requirements to produce over 200 mock draws and these are the teams that featured most often. The fact that two of them, Argentina and Morocco, were also included in the Group of Death may be considered a bad omen, although the prospect of facing Lionel Messi at his last World Cup would carry a romantic appeal.

The pot four team, Jordan, are an unknown quantity as far as Scotland are concerned. The two sides have never met. The Middle Eastern nation qualified as runners-up to South Korea in their Asian Confederation group, finishing ahead of Iraq, Oman, Palestine and Kuwait. Their last match against a European team in June 2023 ended in a 6-0 friendly defeat to Norway in Oslo. In this group, that would be the must-win match for Scotland.

An opener against Morocco would provide Scotland with the chance to avenge their last World Cup match - the final group game of France 1998 which ended in a 3-0 defeat for Craig Brown's men and elimination from the tournament.

Personal Preference Group - Brazil, Scotland, Australia, Curacao

From Scotland’s greatest ever goalless draw against the defending world champions in 1974, to David Narey’s toe-poker in 1982 and the opening match in 1998, there is a rich history when it comes to facing Brazil at the World Cup. Could Scotland land a first ever victory in the fixture after the Brazilians’ worst qualifying campaign in history? Bring it on I say, perhaps foolishly.

Australia are the lowest seed from pot two and drawing them would also mean avoiding the tricky African nations of Morocco and Senegal, familiar European foes of Croatia, Switzerland and Austria, and the dark horses of Japan and South Korea. The Socceroos also provide the added edge of the SPFL connection with squad members Martin Boyle, Jack Iredale, Cammy Devlin and Keanu Baccus all currently plying their trade in the Scottish Premiership while Jackson Irvine, Aziz Behich and Lewis Miller have previously played their football in Scotland. Defender Harry Souttar was also born in Scotland and could come up against his brother, John.

Curacao are not the weakest pot four team in terms of world ranking but they are the smallest nation in history to qualify. There is something alluring about potentially going up against the Caribbean island of around 150,000 inhabitants with a liqueur named after it. Sales of the drink Curacao would hit an all-time high in Scotland one suspects as well as holiday bookings to the picturesque Dutch outpost. First and foremost this group would present Scotland with a realstic chance to reach the last 32.