Scotland feel miles from World Cup qualification but pivotal game could be in Steve Clarke's wheelhouse

He asked a family – a father and his two kids – how far away they reckoned Mexico City, home of the Azteca stadium, is from Glasgow. The relevance being that the storied arena will host the opening match of the 2026 World Cup on 11 June. The answers ranged around the 3,000-mile mark, which were reasonable attempts. The correct distance is in fact 5,815 miles.

It felt like every one of those miles as Scotland came back out for the second half and continued to flirt with disaster against a side ranked 100 in the world.

What is going to happen against Greece in Piraeus next month? Hampden to the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in the Athens suburbs is just over 2,000 miles. Scotland remain a long way from their goal of qualification. However, with a play-off place banked, they can treat this game and the one after it versus Denmark as the play-off before the play-off – or the play-off to avoid the play-off.

They do not even have to win the first match, where a draw would almost certainly set up a titanic must-win finale against the Danes. Win both and it’s hello Mexico City or wherever it is Scotland will be drawn to play their first match. It is unlikely, though not impossible, that they will be involved in the opening match of successive major finals.

They will, whatever happens, be in the World Cup finals draw when it’s made on 5 December in Washington. If not written down plainly as ‘Scotland’ following automatic qualification, they will be identifiable as a placeholder. For example, ‘winner of play-off match five’.

This was confirmed late on Sunday night, long after the boos had died away after what Steve Clarke described as Scotland’s most disappointing display of his record 72-game tenure. What is now certain is that the manager will hit 75 games – at least.

Two next month and one more guaranteed in the Spring if Scotland are forced to navigate the play-off route, when there is a semi-final to negotiate before a final. Of course, if Scotland secure automatic qualification there will be friendlies plus at least three group games before Clarke can ride off into the sunset and take the club job he still covets. The way some seemed to be feeling on Sunday, they’d be happy for the 62-year-old to begin looking for that next position right now.

Draw required in Greece to avoid Denmark dead rubber

To be fair to Clarke, he seemed as distressed as anyone. He wasn’t about to sugarcoat things but then he knew it wasn’t possible to do so. Belarus had been allowed 22 shots on goal compared with the Scots’ 12. The visitors scored two goals although only one counted. Even this doubled their goals tally for the campaign.

As for Scotland, there is much work still to be done. Scott McKenna described Clarke as the angriest he had seen him in all previous 71 matches. Although McKenna has not played in them all, he has been in and around the squad since Clarke’s debut as manager. Indeed, he started that first win over Cyprus back in 2019.

Whether the centre half earns his 47th cap in Greece remains to be seen. One suspects Grant Hanley will start, alongside John Souttar – providing both at fit. Having boxed his players’ ears, Clarke will wish he could have handed out some big fluffy rolls of cotton wool for the likes of Che Adams to wrap themselves in ahead of such a crucial encounter.

Many keep talking about the importance of the visit of the Danes but that will almost certainly be a dead rubber if Scotland fail to secure at least a point in Greece first. Indeed, winning or drawing does not make a lot of difference, providing it’s one of these two outcomes. Scotland will still likely need to beat Denmark at home.

The alternative would be hard to stomach since it would mean the final match, rather than being an epic shootout for a berth at the World Cup, would effectively be a warm-up for Scotland ahead of March’s semi-final play-off. Denmark, meanwhile, could strut their stuff knowing they were already North America bound by dint of having a far superior goal difference to their opponents.

Remaining qualifiers could be in Clarke’s wheelhouse

To avoid this, and assuming Denmark beat Belarus in Copenhagen, Scotland must take something from their trip to Greece. Although they won there on their last visit, as recently as March, it was a lead easily overturned by their opponents at Hampden a few days later. The Greeks were comfortably the better side in three of the four halves of football in that two-legged tie as well as in both halves on Thursday, when they were ambushed late on by Scotland.

Although already out of the qualifying equation, Ivan Jovanovic’s side will feel they have a point to prove.

Such a potentially backs-to-the wall scenario might suit Clarke. It could prove to be in his wheelhouse. Horrifyingly for some, it may even convince him to dust down a five-at-the-back formation last seen in the Euro 2024 group clash against Switzerland.

As someone noted after Sunday night’s narrow win, if you want to give Scotland a problem then let them have the ball, they won’t know what to do with it. Expected to take the game to both Greece and Belarus at Hampden, Clarke’s team very quickly seemed to run out of ideas. Might Ben Gannon-Doak, who was a problem as well as an inspiration against Belarus, start for the fourth time in a row in Greece? These are big questions.

Clarke, in the meantime, will simply pray that his players stay fit. One upside of several of them being currently underused by their clubs is that it increases the chance of this being the case.