Can Scotland still qualify for World Cup knockouts? What do Scotland need against Brazil?

Defeat to Morocco leaves Scotland World Cup hopes hanging in the balance

Scotland have work to do to qualify for the World Cup knockout stages for the first time after losing 1-0 to Morocco on a deflating night in Massachusetts.

Steve Clarke's side were unable to cause an upset against the side ranked sixth in the world at Boston Stadium in Foxborough to leave their hopes of reaching the last 32 hanging in the balance.

A goal from PSV Eindhoven striker Ismael Saibari inside 70 seconds - the quickest goal of the World Cup so far - proved the difference with Scotland unable to find an equaliser despite a late rally.

Morocco's Ismael Saibari scoring the opening goal against Scotland in the World Cup Group C match at the Boston Stadium, Foxborough.placeholder image
Morocco's Ismael Saibari scoring the opening goal against Scotland in the World Cup Group C match at the Boston Stadium, Foxborough. | PA

The result puts Morocco top of Group C on four points and leaves Scotland second on three points for the time being. They will drop to third providing Brazil beat Haiti in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Scotland will then head into their own match against Brazil in Miami on Wednesday knowing that a historic victory over the six-time World Cup champions will be required to finish inside the top two and guarantee qualification.

A draw would almost certainly be enough to secure progression as one of the eight best third place teams on four points - while a defeat would leave Scotland relying on results in other groups to go through on three points.

Can Scotland still qualify for the World Cup last 32 if they lose to Brazil?

The short answer is yes, but not guaranteed. For the first time in a World Cup, eight third place teams from the 12 groups will progress to the round of 32. According to Opta, four points gives a team a 99.81 per cent chance of reaching the knockouts via third place so a draw with Brazil would likely be enough.

That drops to 66.67 per cent for a team finishing on three points with chances increasing or decreasing depending on goal difference. As things stand Scotland are on level goal difference. Opta rate the chances of progressing with negative goal difference as follows: -1, 81.4 per cent; -2, 63.4 per cent; -3, 41.8 per cent; -4, 26.9 per cent; -5, 18.1 per cent.

Scotland's John McGinn (left) and Morocco's Noussair Mazraoui battle for the ball during the World Cup Group C match at the Boston Stadium, Foxborough.placeholder image
Scotland's John McGinn (left) and Morocco's Noussair Mazraoui battle for the ball during the World Cup Group C match at the Boston Stadium, Foxborough. | PA

Who could Scotland face in the World Cup last 32

If Scotland achieve the unthinkable in Miami on Wednesday and beat Brazil to clinch a top two finish Group C, they will face an opponent from Group F in their first ever World Cup knockout match. The Group C winners will face the Group F runners-up on Monday, June 29 in Houston at 11pm BST. Japan, who battled to a 1-1 draw with Netherlands in their opening fixture, are currently second in Group F but there is still a lot of football to be played.

If Scotland claim a runners-up finish in Group C, they will take on the winners of Group F on Tuesday, June 30 in Guadalupe, Mexico at 2am BST. Sweden currently hold top spot in Group F after a 5-1 win over Tunisia on matchday one.

If Scotland draw or lose to Brazil to finish third in Group C, and claim one of the eight qualification places up for grabs for finishing third, then there are three routes available to them.

The most probable is the winner of Group E in Boston on Monday, June 29 at 9.30pm BST. That could be Germany, who are top of that section, or Ivory Coast.

There is a reasonable chance that they end up playing co-hosts Mexico - likely winners of Group A - in Mexico City on Wednesday, July 1, 2am BST. The other option is very unlikely - that they play the winner of Group I - likely to be France or Norway - in New York on Tuesday, June 30 at 10pm BST.

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