Trump's authenticity in the minds of US voters helped him beat Harris and the polls

A bit of a surprise, for sure – he significantly out-performed the polls.

But for anyone who looked there was easily found data that showed such a Trump win was distinctly possible.

Before the election I wrote analysis pieces that examined two simple statistics: Kamala Harris was mostly 1 to 3 per cent ahead in opinion polls, and Mr Trump was under-estimated by pollsters in 2016 and 2020 by 1 per cent and 3 per cent respectively.

At the end of the race her polling lead was narrowing. An obvious conclusion was that if the polls were only finding her 1 per cent ahead, and the under-estimate of him was at the upper 3 per cent end of past under-estimates, then he would win the US popular vote by 2 per cent – which he is set to do (votes are still being counted) - as well as sweeping the electoral college.

Here in the US, where I have been in the swing states of Nevada and Arizona for three weeks, I have talked to many Americans, as well as discussing the race digitally with friends back in the UK.

If I said to anti-Trumpers that Ms Harris did not seem far ahead enough in the polls, it was often rejected at once. The US was sick of him, they said, she was leading in swing states, etc.

Some Harris campaigners of course knew she might lose, and worked hard to prevent it.

But others engaged in wish fulfilment and ignored Mr Trump's brilliance at connecting with the instincts of Americans.

Joe Biden, responding to a pro-Trump comedian who called Puerto Rico garbage, used that word to describe Trump supporters in response, but I do not think that gaffe was decisive in this contest.

There was a deeper dismissal of such American voters’ staunch patriotism, a dismissal of their religion, their concerns on immigration and trans extremism, and their support at Trump drilling for US oil independence.

Contrast the latter with the UK under Labour effectively shutting down North Sea oil.

Unionists in Scotland and Northern Ireland (where I am from) and Brexit supporters across the UK will recognise the sneering to which Trump supporters were subject.

This was often class based: many Harris supporters are more affluent than Trump ones. The richest voters in America once leant heavily towards the 'low-tax' Republican Party. The highest income group in the 1984 election broke 69-31 for the Republican Ronald Reagan over the Democrats.

Now the top income group is closer to 55-45 for Donald Trump. His multi-racial coalition includes blue collar workers who helped him win the ‘Blue Wall’ states like Michigan where Democrats once drew large support.

President Regan also won over ‘Reagan Democrats’ – working-class supporters with conservative social values.

To win such voters back the Democrats turned in the 1990s to a moderate, white, southern man: Bill Clinton.

This time they turned to a woman of colour who was chosen as Joe Biden’s vice president to make the 2020 Democratic Party ticket more diverse.

She never distinguished herself in that role and during the election struggled to answer the few difficult questions she was asked.

Donald Trump seemed more authentic to voters.

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