Why Scotland should be braced for Donald Trump visit as soon as next summer after historic US election win

Not since Gerald Ford has a serving US president failed to visit the UK, and despite their ideological differences, realpolitik ensures it is highly unlikely the incoming Trump administration and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour government will dispense with a half century of tradition. 

Nigel Farage, a long-standing supporter of Mr Trump, has already called on Sir Keir to “roll out the red carpet”, describing it as a “huge opportunity to be grasped”. The Labour leader may not quite view it in such terms, but has congratulated Mr Trump on his win and emphasised the vital relations between the UK and US.

Asked at Prime Minister’s Questions by the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, if he would extend an invitation to Mr Trump to address Parliament on his next visit, Sir Keir said it was “absolutely crucial” there was a “strong, special relationship”. But he ducked the question of when, or if, there would be a visit.

The conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East will be a priority for both administrations, but given the importance of intergovernmental relations between the two countries, the issue of a visit will be the subject of preliminary discussions in the corridors of Whitehall over coming weeks. Indeed, the two men have already sought to forge a closer relationship, with Sir Keir meeting with the incoming US president in September. 

Also present was foreign secretary, David Lammy, whose past assessments of the Trump Organisation’s patriarch have been even more scathing. He has described him as an “enemy of democracy” and a “far right extremist” who presided over a “corrupt and morally bankrupt administration”. All of which surely made for interesting small talk between courses during the two hour-long dinner at Trump Tower in New York.

During his first term, the-then prime minister Theresa May wasted no time in inviting Mr Trump to Britain, doing so just seven days after his inauguration in January 2017. Early plans for a visit that summer were put on hold, reportedly because Mr Trump objected to the prospect of being met with large-scale protests.

In the end, he waited nearly 18 months before coming to the UK. And as fate would have it, that trip, in July 2018, was not an official state visit, despite the fact it included meetings with Ms May, and the late Queen Elizabeth II. Instead, the majority of Mr Trump’s time on British soil was spent at Turnberry, where a massive security operation was mounted to allow him to play several rounds of golf at the resort’s famed Ailsa links.

Whether Mr Trump returns to Scotland or not, the influence of the Scottish Government will have no real bearing. Long before Mr Trump’s Aberdeenshire resort lost a court battle over a major North Sea wind power development - a ruling that saw the Trump entity pay the Government £225,000 to cover its legal bills - relations had been strained. The-then first minister Nicola Sturgeon had little time for Mr Trump, a feeling that was reciprocated, and the same dynamic is true when it comes to John Swinney, who only last week backed Kamala Harris in the race for the White House. 

Instead, Mr Trump’s motivation would, as always, be about boosting his businesses. Indeed, he may view the opening of a second course at his inaugural Scottish resort, Trump International Scotland in Aberdeenshire, as an opportune time to return.

In his capacity as a private individual, he visited the resort last year alongside his son, Eric, to break ground on the new links, which will be named after his Hebridean mother, Mary Anne MacLeod. And with the course scheduled to open next summer, the chance to promote it with the full weight of the US presidency behind him may prove too great to resist. 

Sarah Malone, executive vice-president of Trump International Scotland, did not comment directly on a potential visit when asked by The Scotsman. However, she said Mr Trump and his family’s commitment and investment in Scotland would remain “unwavering”.

“We have seen it here at his golf resorts in Scotland,” she said. “Donald Trump had a vision to create world-class golf destinations and that is what he has done.”

One source familiar with Mr Trump’s businesses in Scotland said it was clear from the incoming US president's time in the country last May that he regarded the new course as a significant development.

“The plans for the course named after his mother have been in the works for eight years or so, and there’s a genuine optimism that it’ll be a world-class links,” they explained. “I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he turned up next year for the opening.”

And what about Turnberry, where Mr Trump also spent time last year on its whirlwind trip? Given its status as a four-time host of golf’s prestigious Open Championship, could Mr Trump come back to South Ayrshire during his second term?

I put that question to Nic Oldham, the property’s general manager, who said there were “no upcoming trips” planned with Mr Trump or his family. He expressed confidence, however, that Eric, who has largely overseen the Scottish properties in his father’s absence, would be back soon.

“I am sure Eric will be over at some point to look at the works to both the Ailsa and the new course at Aberdeen before next season,” he explained.