What is El Niño? Here's everything you need to know about the climate phenomenon - and why it could have a huge impact on our weather
There may be more extreme weather on the way.
It has been a record-breaking summer, with Britain experiencing frequent heatwaves, drought experienced across England an Wales and wildfires ravaging landcapes from the Cairngorms to Devon.
But scientists believe the worst may be still to come, with the combination of global warming and the El Niño weather pattern combining to make conditions perfect for extreme weather around the world.
That could mean a wet and stormy weather in the latter half of the year, followed by even higher temperatures in 2027.
Here’s everything you you need to know about the El Niño phemonenon powering the unprecedented weather conditions.
What is El Niño
El Niño is nothing new -it is a weather pattern that has happened every two-seven years for thousands of years.
It’s caused by westerly trade winds weakening over the Pacific Ocean which allows warmer water to spread eastwards. The heat is released from the ocean into the atmosphere, causing rising temperatures around the world which can cause extreme weather, from droughts to floods.
What is a Super El Niño
Scientists tend to class an El Niño when the sea in an indicative area of the Pacific increases by more than 0.5C compared to the long-term average.
When that temperature rises by more than 2C it is classed as a Super El Niño, which has even more impact on global weather conditions.
The current El Niño has already exceeded that figure, with experts predicting that it could rise to 3C by the end of the year. This will in turn cause temperatures to rise around the world, including in the UK. It is thought it will be the most significant El Niño since the 17th century and the biggest since records began.
When did the most recent Super El Niño start?
The 2C threshhold was reached in June this year and is continuing to rise.
What does the current El Niño mean for Scotland in the upcoming autumn and winter?
Experts have warned that the El Niño will lead to far more unsettled weather in Scotland in the coming months, with more heavey rain and storms which could case flooding and damage to properties and infrastructure.
What impact will El Niño have on the weather next year?
El Niño will still be occurring well into 2027 which means we can expect even warmer weather that in 2026, with more heatwaves and drought expected.
What has the Met Office said about El Niño?
Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Long Range Forecasting at the Met Office, said: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2C being a really big event. This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
Met Office Science Fellow Dr Nick Dunstone added: “During large El Niño events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Niño. Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed +1.5 C above the preindustrial period”.
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