Analysis

Why £40m ScotRail peak fares suspension trial was doomed to failure

Experimental all-day lower fares a victim of financial crisis

It was a fantastic idea - but failed because the major change it sought to incentivise happened too slowly to escape the Scottish Government’s unprecedented spending squeeze.

Faced with a slower post-Covid return to commuting than the rest of Britain, along with hugely-ambitious emissions reduction targets, ministers hit upon an experimental suspension of the higher ScotRail fares during morning and afternoon peak hours.

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It was aimed at encouraging people to switch from car to train, with the majority of ScotRail’s services now electrically hauled.

The six-month trial from October last year was extended twice, to a year, it give it more chance after a series of winter storms reduced travel. But nine months in, it has so far failed to persuade enough folk to make the change, and ended up primarily benefitting existing rail passengers - like me.

ScotRail’s peak fares suspension attracted some new passengers from their cars - but not enough for the scheme to be continuedScotRail’s peak fares suspension attracted some new passengers from their cars - but not enough for the scheme to be continued
ScotRail’s peak fares suspension attracted some new passengers from their cars - but not enough for the scheme to be continued | John Devlin/The Scotsman

Taking the train is often more expensive than travelling by bus anyway - plus the over-60s and under-22s travel free by bus anyway.

While Transport Secretary Fiona Hyslop has spoken of the pilot being a “bold initiative”, any hope of it being extended further when it hadn’t yet clearly proved successful was dashed due to the scale of the Scottish Government’s budget crisis. It will end in September.

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Professor Iain Docherty, from the University of Stirling, Scotland’s leading transport academic, told me: “It was always a tough ask to generate substantial modal shift away from the car in the short term, especially as commuting patterns have changed significantly since Covid.”

He said that would require a “radical review” that compared the price of rail and bus travel with motoring and parking costs.

Prof Docherty’s call starkly contrasts with the underwhelming recommendations of the Scottish Government’s “fair fares” review in March, such as a flat fare bus pilot scheme, which did little to tackle that disparity.

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A well-placed rail industry source was even more scathing about the peak fares pilot, not helped by apparently being foisted on ScotRail by civil servants.

They described its £40 million cost as “an expensive ministerial whim without much research”, and said spending it on a “clever marketing campaign” instead could have generated four times as much revenue by attracting many more new passengers.

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