Why a Heathrow Airport third runway might be bad for Scotland

That is likely to mean a third runway at the UK’s only hub airport, where passengers connect between flights, could bring as many disadvantages as advantages to the likes of Edinburgh and Glasgow airports, which handle most air travellers north of the Border.

In the latest stage of this very long running saga, Chancellor Rachel Reeves confirmed on Wednesday the Labour UK Government “supports a third runway at Heathrow and is inviting proposals to be brought forward by the summer”.

Heathrow offers Scots a huge range of long-haul destinations via a short hop on high-frequency British Airways services from Edinburgh and Glasgow, and to a lesser extent Aberdeen and Inverness.

There’s often a choice of airlines at Heathrow, and many flights a day on key routes, such as to New York.

That has led to BA’s connecting flights becoming each Scottish airport’s busiest, which also benefits the other half of those routes’ passengers who are travelling to and from London.

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Expansion at Heathrow, which is effectively full with no space for extra flights, could potentially increase those connecting flights further, and perhaps let others like Easyjet compete directly with BA.

It could also decrease the chance of Scottish flights being cancelled during disruption at Heathrow when take-offs and landings are reduced, such as during bad weather, when priority is given to flights from further afield where there are no ground transport alternatives.

On the other side of the coin, the expansion of direct routes from Scottish airports, especially long haul, has arguably been held back by BA and its airline partners luring passengers via Heathrow, often with lower end-to-end fares.

Other airlines do the same from Scotland to other hubs, such as KLM to Amsterdam and Emirates to Dubai.

Direct flights from Scotland get passengers to their destination quicker and with none of the hassle of changing planes - and cutting out connecting flights benefits the environment by reducing emissions.

Edinburgh Airport - Scotland’s busiest - said its priority was its own worldwide connections.

Its spokesperson said: "Increased connectivity on both a domestic and international level is welcomed, but we will always focus on realising the potential of Scotland's aviation industry and ensuring more direct links to the world from Edinburgh.”

In the past, the airport has backed instead a new runway at its sister airport Gatwick, which is under the same ownership. It describes Gatwick expansion as “more deliverable and realistic”.

Ms Reeves said UK Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was expected to decide on expansion at Gatwick - and Luton - airport “shortly”.

The Scottish Government expressed concerns about the Chancellor’s announcement for both the economy and emissions.

Its spokesperson said: “Enabling or supporting the expansion of any airport in the south of England must not make the potential for long-haul growth to service Scotland's trade, tourism or connectivity more challenging.”

They said ministers also wanted to “understand any potential impact of the Heathrow expansion on Scotland, particularly on our climate targets and connectivity”.

The Scottish Government also called for a review of a “memorandum of understanding” it signed with Heathrow nine years ago over how Scotland would benefit from the airport’s expansion, including a planned supply chain base at Prestwick Airport in South Ayrshire.

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce said that could provide a “huge opportunity” for Scottish firms, pointing to a 2017 report that estimated Scotland could benefit from 16,000 jobs and £14 billion of investment from the project.

Ministers were more positive the Chancellor’s plans to develop the production of low-emission sustainable aviation fuel, which, while still in its infancy, is seen as providing a potential future role for the Grangemouth refinery.

Ms Reeves also talked of “increasing trade opportunities for products like Scotch whisky and Scottish salmon, already two of the biggest British exports out of Heathrow."

However, significant quantities are also flown from Scotland via other hubs - so there are other potential options for expansion.

Aviation analyst John Strickland, of JLS Consulting, said: “Heathrow is at full capacity, meaning there is no opportunity to easily increase the number of destinations without a new runway.

“This handicaps Scottish economic development both in terms of trade and tourism, whereas a new runway would foster new opportunities for both.

“It goes without saying that this would need to be delivered responsibly taking account of environmental factors.”

But among opponents of airport expansion, Scottish Greens transport spokesperson described it as “a disaster for future generations”.

He said: “Increasing carbon emissions at this crucial time for our planet's future is nothing but climate vandalism.”

Greenpeace UK policy director Dr Doug Parr said: “A third runway at Heathrow is unlikely to boost the UK economy but will certainly boost noise, air pollution and climate emissions.”

But beware. Whatever promises are made over Heathrow, nothing is likely to happen fast.

Plans are expected to take several years to be considered and building work several more - and that’s if the scheme clears all the political hurdles that have already held it back for more than a decade.

The UK Government put off a decision in 2012 by appointing independent commission was appointed to consider airport expansion, which reported three years later and recommended another runway at Heathrow.

It was backed by MSPs in 2018 but the go-ahead was blocked in the courts two years later and subsequently overturned.