Exclusive:Surge in anti-terror referrals creating unsustainable workload, police warn
Cases expected to jump by 40 per cent, preliminary data indicates
The number of referrals under Scotland's terrorism prevention programme reached a record high over the past year, amid warnings from Police Scotland that the increased demand on specialist officers is not sustainable.
Preliminary figures from Scotland’s national force indicate there was a 40 per cent increase in reports to Prevent in 2025/26, sparking concerns over how the increased demand is impacting its ability to manage casework effectively and deliver its engagement strategy.
Opposition parties described the development as “deeply alarming” and pointed to longstanding warnings around the resourcing of Police Scotland. However, the Scottish government said it worked closely with key partners in Scotland and the UK to identify and tackle the threat of extremism and terrorism.
The Prevent scheme, which forms a key part of the UK’s counter-terror strategy, is designed to tackle the causes of radicalisation, and safeguard and support those identified as being most at risk.
The initiative has seen a steady rise in referrals in Scotland in recent years. While there were 87 such reports in 2022/23, the number jumped to 114 the following year and 162 in 2024/25.
However, it is understood that figure was superseded over the course of 2025/26, with preliminary figures indicating a year-on-year “increase in excess of 40 per cent,” which would put the number of referrals at around 227.
The details of the latest spike are set out in a report to the Scottish Police Authority (SPA) by Assistant Chief Constable Stuart Houston, the force’s executive lead for organised crime, counter terrorism, and intelligence.
Its dedicated Prevent Delivery Unit (PDU) handles all relevant concerns and referrals from elsewhere in the force, as well as from partner agencies such as local authorities , schools, and further education bodies, with officers then assessing the cases for early intervention and support. The unit is also tasked with raising awareness about Prevent, and collaborating with other stakeholders, including the Home Office and the Scottish government.
However, Mr Houston said that due to the rising number of cases, there were questions surrounding the extent of the unit’s workload.
“There is a risk that the PDU will be unable to effectively discharge Police Scotland’s statutory Prevent duty due to the increase in demand of Prevent referrals and resultant casework,” he explained in the report.
“Referrals for 2024/25 were 60 per cent higher than the five year average in Scotland. Data has not yet been published for 2025/26. The figures are still being checked and verified, however are likely to show an increase in excess of 40 per cent from the previous year.”
He added: “This demand will have an impact on the unit’s ability to effectively manage casework and deliver our engagement strategy both internally and with external partners. The increased workload in this high-risk area of policing is placing a considerable demand on staff and is not sustainable.
“The risk of terrorism in Scotland would increase if subjects were missed or not assessed and managed appropriately at the early intervention stages of Prevent case management.”
The report, which will come before the SPA’s policing performance committee on Wednesday, points out that as part of efforts to tackle the workload, two posts from elsewhere in Police Scotland’s organised crime and counter terrorism unit have been “realigned” to the Prevent programme, with two suitable candidates undergoing vetting.
“Once these officers have completed their training, it will relieve some of the pressure, however if the increased workload remains, further resourcing will require to be considered,” Mr Houston wrote.
The force has not provided any breakdown of the preliminary referral data for 2025/26, but the figures for the previous year showed that the highest proportion of reports made - some 38 per cent - related to extreme right wing concerns.
The second most common reason, accounting for 16 per cent of the referrals, was for people who had no clear ideology but demonstrated other behaviours that would make them susceptible to radicalisation. Some 14 per cent of the referrals in 2024/25 were tied to Islamist extremism, with 12 per cent linked to a fascination with extreme violence.
Males made up the majority of the referrals at 89 per cent, while children aged under 15 accounted for 37 per cent of the referrals.
Scottish Conservative justice spokesman, Stephen Kerr MSP, said: “This intervention is deeply alarming given police bosses are warning a terrorist attack could be imminent.
“The Prevent programme plays a key role in stopping people from getting involved in terrorist activity and in turn helps keep communities safe. With it previously being reported that young people have frequently been referred to Prevent, we need to ensure officers working on it do not continue to feel overwhelmed.
“These warnings must be a wake-up call for SNP ministers to give Police Scotland the resources it requires to stamp out this extremist activity and to work closely with security services across the UK.”
Scottish Labour’s justice spokesperson, Pauline McNeill MSP, said: “It is worrying that the increased demand on the Prevent anti-terror programme could put at risk Police Scotland’s ability to fulfil its statutory duty.
“Scottish Labour has long warned about the impact of the SNP’s failure to properly resource the force and the consequences this is having on communities.”
While Prevent remains the go-to mechanism for dealing with individuals considered at risk, there has been growing criticism of its effectiveness and relevance.
A report issued by the Home Affairs Select Committee in April described the programme as “outdated” and “inadequately prepared” to deal with modern extremism challenges in the digital world.
The committee’s chair, Dame Karen Bradley said that many of the core functions designed to divert children and young people at risk of being radicalised were established in “a different age,” with the need for an overhaul.
A Scottish government spokesperson said: “The Scottish government works closely with key partners in Scotland and the UK to ensure we are able to identify and tackle the threat of extremism and terrorism.
“Decisions on operational matters are for the Chief Constable, who has the flexibility to best allocate resources where they are needed.”