Why the two Westminster by-elections are the SNP's to lose
After the Holyrood election results, there will be two by-elections held in Scotland.
You would be forgiven for thinking election fever was over - but there will soon be two Westminster by-elections in Scotland, and they are all to play for for the SNP.
Stephen Flynn MSP and Stephen Gethins MSP both had to give up their seats in the House of Commons after successfully winning seats in Holyrood earlier this month. This means there will now be a by-election in the Aberdeen South constituency and the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency.
Given these were two of the few areas to stick with the nationalists at the 2024 general election, these should be reasonably safe fights for the SNP.
Yet both the Conservatives are Reform UK are making early moves on Aberdeen South, convinced their track records on the oil and gas industry will serve them well.
The Conservatives have already announced Douglas Lumsden, who was only sworn-in as an MSP on Thursday, as their candidate for this seat. They are feeling buoyed by how agonisingly close they came to beating Mr Flynn for the Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine seat at Holyrood.
Mr Flynn only managed a majority of 1,244.
However, the boundaries for the Westminster seat are not the same as the Holyrood seat - and that is to the benefit of the SNP.
“The Conservatives came relatively close to getting that seat in Holyrood, but I think people might be getting carried away because Aberdeen South is not the same as Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine,” said Allan Faulds from Ballot Box Scotland.
“North Kincardine is not in the Westminster seat, and that is a more Conservative area, whereas it does have more of the Aberdeen Central seat from Holyrood, which is more SNP.
“So Aberdeen South at Westminster is a lot harder for the Conservatives to win than Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine is in Holyrood.”
Mr Faulds also warns there could be a very low turnout for the Aberdeen South by-election, as some voters in this constituency will also be voting in council by-election for the George Street and Harbour ward on June 25.
He said: “If there are two by-elections in quick succession, they will have a really bad turnout because voters don’t want to go out twice.”
However, that does not mean it will not be a close fight.
Will Scheffler, a researcher at the Diffley Partnership, said: “Aberdeen South could prove a close contest between the SNP and the Conservatives.
“Stephen Flynn won the contest in 2024 with around 33 per cent of the vote, compared to 25 per cent for Labour and 24 per cent for the Conservatives.
“The Conservatives came within 4 per cent of winning the Deeside seat, despite Reform UK taking nearly 18 per cent of the vote, but they won’t be helped by the fact that the Westminster constituency extends into the more SNP-friendly Central constituency.
“Time will tell whether the Tories can make the tactical vote argument to Reform UK supporters in order to compensate for unfavourable boundaries.
“I’d expect the SNP to hold on, but the result could be closer than they would prefer it to be.”
Meanwhile Reform UK has announced former nurse Jo Hart, who failed to win a seat at the Holyrood election, as their candidate for Aberdeen South.
Ms Hart stood in the Aberdeenshire West constituency at the Scottish Parliament election, but came third behind the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP with less than 15 per cent of the vote.
The party has pledged to “drill Scotland drill”, and says they will put the North Sea oil and gas industry at the “heart of economic recovery”.
Mr Faulds believes Reform UK could get a good vote share in this by-election, but said it is “hard to see them winning” as their Holyrood result was “disappointing” and shows them “at their ceiling of support”.
Meanwhile the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry seat is a much safer bet for the SNP. At the Holyrood election, this area saw some of the highest nationalist majorities.
Mr Faulds added: “It is hard to see Arbroath and Broughty Ferry going in any other direction than SNP.
“Neither seat is safe, but with the Labour collapse they are good bets.”
Mr Scheffler agrees, but warns it could be another close fight. He said: “On paper, Arbroath and Broughty Ferry looks like it could be a close contest - Labour came within 2 per cent of winning the seat in 2024 and in the overlapping Holyrood constituencies of Angus South and Dundee City East, Labour’s vote shares earlier this month did not materially decline from 2021 notional results.
“This is despite being substantially lower than the figures for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in 2024 in both Holyrood constituencies.
“Having said that, the SNP have reason to be confident here. Our own polling ahead of the recent Holyrood election found that just a quarter of Scots approved of the UK Government’s record, compared to four in 10 who approve of the Scottish Government’s record.
“In a Westminster by-election, shifting the conversation away from John Swinney and towards Keir Starmer is likely to benefit the SNP significantly.”
He said if the contest becomes a referendum on the UK Government, then the nationalists are in a stronger position to retain the seat.
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