Why the Scottish Labour manifesto will be a launchpad to win the 2026 Holyrood election

The party will launch its manifesto on Tuesday hoping to keep the momentum going in a campaign Labour has, so far at least, cruised through.

All things considered, Labour has had a pretty calm campaign so far. In reality, the party has been drip-feeding its plans if it forms a government for the past 12 months – in stark contrast to some of the eye-raising proposals such as for National Service we’ve had from the Conservatives – very much looking like a last-ditch attempt to salvage some pride from the election.

Anas Sarwar will not have Sir Keir Starmer or any other UK Labour heavyweights flanking him as he reveals what his party is offering voters north of the Border. It is unlikely Scottish Labour’s manifesto will produce any surprises or anything we haven’t heard already.

Instead, Scottish Labour’s pitch is expected to point out what Sir Keir has already promised, how Scotland fits into that vision, and crucially setting up Mr Sarwar to launch a bid for Bute House in 2026.

Throughout the campaign so far, Mr Sarwar has honed in on Holyrood, despite those issues not being up for grabs at this election. Labour is not the only party pointing to devolved issues in a Westminster election – the LibDems have rarely done anything but that, while the Tories have also gone for the SNP’s record in government.

But for Scottish Labour, the push for Holyrood feels different – there is a belief that Mr Sarwar could form the next Scottish government. Although that is by no means a guarantee.

That election is still two years away. Despite Labour enjoying a soar in the polls as the public heads into this Westminster election, the existing brand of the Scottish party has not had to stick up for decisions made in London that may not go down too well with voters north of the Border.

Mr Sarwar has made clear his ambitions to form the next Holyrood government and Tuesday’s manifesto launch for the Westminster election will be the launchpad for that aim. Labour insiders believe focusing on devolved issues such as the SNP’s record on the NHS will animate voters to back them this time around and set the scene for the second part of their plan in 2026.

Writing in the Daily Record, the Scottish Labour leader insisted his party’s pitch this time around will help “chart a path towards the 2026 Scottish Parliament election”.

Mr Sarwar added: “The next step must be a new government in Holyrood – one that is relentlessly focused on the issues that matter to you.”

Sir Keir’s pitch to voters across the UK has been to encourage them to turn to Labour to provide change after years of a chaotic government at Westminster. Mr Sarwar’s ambition centres around making that same pitch targeting the SNP, with that campaign already very much in motion.