Why Scottish Labour believes the party conference has set it up to win the Holyrood election

It was the final conference the UK party will have before next year’s Holyrood election.

This is Labour’s best chance to topple the SNP for a decade and a half. They managed to beat them at last year’s general election, but have since gone well behind in the polls.

Despite this, Scottish Labour figures were extremely upbeat both during and after the conference. They seem to genuinely believe they can still win next year - and they have told The Scotsman this year’s Labour conference helped.

‘The PM has come out stronger’

Much of the build up to the conference had been dominated by Sir Keir Starmer’s future. The sacking of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador cast real doubts about the Prime Minister’s judgement and had some questioning whether he was the man to take the party forward.

This followed a tumultuous first year in office, with big U-turns over the winter fuel payment and benefit cuts - all of which caused real unhappiness among MPs. But the manoeuvres of Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham caused that to fizzle out and shored up Sir Keir’s support.

One MP said they were surprised at how positive the conference was and claimed the PM had “come out stronger”.

They said: “It was more upbeat than we thought it was going to be. There was a bit less doom and gloom. I think it was successful.

“The Prime Minister has come out stronger. Andy Burnham’s actions backfired. He lost support among folk who may have backed him because he came on too strong and too quick.

“Some of us thought this conference was about whether Keir Starmer could survive as Prime Minister, but the bad stories didn’t come up too much.”

Dunfermline and Dollar MP Graeme Downie agreed, saying there was an unexpected amount of unity.

He said: “It was a decent conference overall. I was actually pleasantly surprised. There was a very helpful, almost siege mentality vibe to it.

“It was like ‘this is what we’re going to do. We’re going to do this together and we’re just going to get on with it’.

“There was certainly a unity, there wasn’t much b****ing at the fringe events. There was a little of ‘what the party should do’, which is all fine

“There was an understanding, we’re getting what the leadership is trying to do now and you’ve got us, we’re on board. But they were constructive. The bits I was around, it was constructive conversations happening.”

Reeves and Starmer on the front foot

MPs seemed to be genuinely happy with the Prime Minister and Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s speeches at the conference.

Both appeared to be more relaxed and gave some of their best performances, which was surprising given how badly things have been going lately.

One MP said: “Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves both on front foot at a time when they were under pressure. They maybe didn’t have full backing of MPs before the conference, but definitely came out stronger.

“They had strong speeches. Reeves seemed more relaxed than usual and it was one of best performances. I had hoped that the child poverty strategy and the announcement about the two-child benefit cap would have been in the Prime Minister’s speech.

“This would have been red meat for the delegates and would have been met with a standing ovation. But it was still his best speech every by a long way.

“Again this was surprising given the backdrop. But the PM came out fighting. He was right to call Reform’s policies racist. Their attack on Anas Sarwar was racist and is about time we started fighting back.

“Hopefully there are no more missteps because he’s probably only got one more big mistake left. We have a big budget coming up. But they have bought themselves the right to do it and hopefully we will see something about the two child cap then.”

Scottish Labour’s chances ‘looking better’

Mr Downie said he was happy that Scottish Labour was not seeking to distance itself from the UK government at the conference and that this would help next year.

The Dunfermline and Dollar MP said: “Anas was very clear on Keir. There was no messing around, no ‘oh, well but we’ve got our disagreements’. He’s the Prime Minister. He’s our best chance of winning in Scotland next year.

“We’re not going to win in Scotland by running away from a UK Labour government. It’s very hard to say, the UK government is bad, vote Labour. It doesn’t work.

“However difficult some of that is, you're better being close rather than far away. I think that was very clear. If that stuff is translated into government decisions and how we approach government, I think it will only help next year.

“I think Anas’s language was very punchy around Farage, around the SNP and not apologising. We’re going to bring about safer streets, and we like the police, we’re not going to apologise for that anymore.

“We’re done fudging. We’re just going to come out and say these things are important.”

Another MP agreed: “The conference has helped Scottish Labour. We can take the fight to the SNP and Reform. The PM is right that they’re both parties of grievance while they snipe from the sidelines.

“What will be important for us is showing what the UK government is delivering compared to in Scotland. We’re not getting benefits of stuff down south like decreased waiting times in the NHS.

“I liked Keir Starmer’s focus on apprenticeships and skills, we need an emphasis on further education. But in Scotland there are more cuts in the education sector again.”

Did it in 1999, hoping do it again

Newly-appointed Scottish Secretary Douglas Alexander said in the lead up to the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999, Labour was trailing the SNP in the polls despite a landslide general election victory the year before.

He said the party “pulled the numbers back and we are determined to do it again”.

The conference seems to have helped. It was one of the less chaotic moments of the past 15 months and allowed Sir Keir to look like a leader.

But for Scottish Labour, things will need to drastically change if Mr Sarwar is to end up in Bute House.