Where now for the Tories in Scotland and the UK amid 'bleak' election fallout

George Osborne, the former Conservative chancellor, described this seemingly “odd” response as he offered his immediate reaction on ITV.

“There will be a bit of a sigh of relief, even though it’s the worst result since 1832 when the Duke of Wellington was running the Tory Party,” he said.

The reason, Mr Osborne explained, was that there had been genuine fears of an “extinction level event” for the party, one from which it would not be able to recover.

But the problem for the Conservatives, both north and south of the border, is that any kind of recovery will depend very much what happens next.

As both embark on potentially bruising leadership contests, there is no guarantee that rock bottom has already been reached.

At a UK level, Rishi Sunak’s resignation leaves a vacancy, but some of the most likely candidates to succeed the Conservative leader lost their seats in Thursday’s cull, including Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps.

Survivors who could be in the frame include outgoing Cabinet members like James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch, or Suella Braverman on the right of the party.

A lurch to the right is what many fear, particularly after an election in which Reform UK took more than four million votes, heralding the arrival of Nigel Farage and three other MPs from his party at the House of Commons.

“There will be a huge conversation and argument inside the Conservative Party, which is ‘if we can merge with Reform then we can come back at Labour’... I think that’s a disastrous route for the Tories to go down, but it is going to be the conversation,” said Mr Osborne.

Adam Morris, former head of media for the Scottish Conservatives, also said the UK party must avoid a shift to the right. 

“It would be catastrophic, and go about as well for them as it did for Labour when they lurched to the left under Corbyn,” he said.

“I hope they pick a sensible, moderate leader who can appeal to the centre-ground. You can’t win an election without that.

“It feels pretty bleak just now for the UK Tories, but Labour won’t have an easy ride over the next five years. If the Tories get it right, they could challenge again in five years’ time.

“But my fear is they’ll look at Farage and think they need someone on the right like Braverman. That would just usher in more years of wilderness and let Starmer really get a grip on the popular vote for a decade.”

The Scottish Conservative Party, meanwhile, was already facing a leadership contest as a result of the surprise announcement, mid-campaign, that Douglas Ross would stand down.

Mr Ross was said to be hoping to swap Holyrood for Westminster, but ended up losing in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, with the outgoing leader certainly not helped by the handling of his decision to stand in the seat in the place of David Duguid, who was in hospital, unwell. Overall, the party won five seats, down from six in 2019, and 13 in 2017.

The Tories were also in second place in 18 seats prior to this election, with that figure now reduced to five, leaving many constituencies resembling a straight fight between Labour and the SNP.

“It was a weird night,” Mr Morris said. “It was a sore one losing Douglas Ross, but to return five MPs against the UK backdrop was some achievement. It shows what can be done with hardworking candidates focusing on a local message.”

He believed it was time for the party to move beyond its strategy of focusing on anti-independence votes.

“I think the ‘no to independence’ message has now had its day. I know a number of MSPs and senior figures feel that way too,” he said

“It’s served the party really well in successive campaigns. But with the SNP weakened, so too is the message.

“It’s an opportunity for the next leader to really embark on a liberal, centre-ground policy agenda, free from the constraints of the UK party in government too.

“Scotland is meant to be a conservative country after all – maybe this could be the opportunity for a party to actually marry that up with a set of positive, sensible objectives and ambitions.”

Potential candidates for the leadership are justice spokesman Russell Findlay, party deputy leader Meghan Gallacher and chairman Craig Hoy. “They’re still the second biggest party in Holyrood by some distance. Labour in Holyrood, aside from a couple of big hitters, aren’t up to much – I think they could have a good couple of years if they get the right leader in place,” said Mr Morris.

One advantage for the Scottish Conservatives over their colleagues south of the border is that its members are more likely to get behind the new leader, whoever is elected.

After losing his seat, Mr Shapps, the former defence secretary, said voters had been put off by the UK party’s “propensity to create an endless political soap opera out of internal rivalries and divisions which have become increasingly indulgent and entrenched”.

He added: "We forgot a fundamental rule - people do not vote for divided parties.”

With battle-lines being drawn ahead of a fresh leadership contest, and the impact of Mr Farage’s arrival at Westminster still to emerge, it is unclear when the party will remember that rule.

Any Tory celebrations at avoiding an “extinction level event” on Thursday could still therefore prove premature.