Where experts and MPs think Sir Keir Starmer's defence spending boost should be spent in Scotland

While many lament the commitment has come at the expense of the foreign aid budget, notably Anneliese Dodds, who resigned as international development minister and minister for women on Friday over the decision, it was an announcement long expected, not least due to pressure from the US over defence spending.

US president Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Nato members, urging them to spend more. And by making the defence announcement this week, it allowed Sir Keir Starmer to arrive in Washington with proof that Europe is willing to pay its way.

His action was viewed as a move that strengthened Ukraine, encouraged Europe to do the same, and convinced Mr Trump to do more to protect Kyiv.

While the US has been the most vocal about increasing defence spending, the investment has also been considered deeply important by MPs at home, both privately and in public. In a time where Russia and China seek to grow their influence, many parliamentarians have told The Scotsman spending must rise to match those threats. But where should it be spent?

Speaking to MPs, academics and those in the industry, opinions were split, both on where the money should go, but also to what extent it could make a difference in Ukraine. What they did broadly agree on, however, was the commitment represented a boost for Scotland.

Scottish Labour MP Graeme Downie, speaking just days after returning from a trip to Ukraine, said the money should be spent on equipment.

“We had a briefing in Ukraine from the Tony Blair Institute, which included some information that the more you spend, that’s a much better proxy for military capability, rather than anything else,” he said. “More equipment is what is needed.

“For Scotland, there seems to be two or three obvious angles - one of the protection of the High North and the Greenland Gap and the north of the UK and east of the UK in the North Sea.

“We need to build more ships, so we can protect ourselves and sell that technology to our allies and work with them to improve all of our security.

“There’s marine protection and working with allies, ship building in Rosyth, the Type 31 frigate, Type 26 built on the River Clyde. There are also export opportunities to both partners in Scandinavia, as well as the Baltics and around the world.

“There’s also the protection of subsea cables, which we know the Russians are probing constantly. It’s basically the Royal Navy going back to what it did, protecting the British isles.”

Mr Downie’s comments come as the UK unveiled a new defence innovation body. Leaders from 15 British defence firms of all sizes met on Friday at RAF Waddington to discuss how the new unit would operate.

Scottish Tory MP John Cooper argued Scotland was “key” to the new defence posture, and urged ministers to now flex “the industrial muscle” of Scotland.

He said: “Submarines from Faslane and interceptor and maritime patrol aircraft from RAF Lossiemouth are critical to defending the High North from potential aggression.

“We are pre-eminent in warship building on the Clyde and at Rosyth. Critical elements of the new Dreadnought class of submarine, which will replace Vanguard as our continuous at-sea nuclear deterrent, are being shaped at Rosyth and on the Clyde already.

“Babcock are building the missile tube assemblies in Fife, and Thales in Glasgow are responsible for the optronic masts - the high-tech successor to old-style periscopes. But it’s the smaller firms right across the country and the defence supply chain who need to be supported to ramp up.”

Mr Cooper referenced the range of military hardware made in Scotland, from helmets for the F35 fighter-bomber, to specialist batteries which sit in things such as ejector seats and warheads. He said the Ministry of Defence (MoD) must support the smaller firms making such equipment.

“To fulfill the big MoD orders that are coming, small firms will need finance to open new production lines and take on staff,” he said. “It is only by allying our military with our civilian defence industry that we can make the changes we need to transform our forces to face new challenges. We need more of everything - low-tech bullets and artillery shells especially, but also high-tech missiles and drones.

“Wars are fought in trenches and on myriad battlefields, but they are won in the shipyards and on the factory floors of the home front.”

Lib Dem defence spokesperson Jamie Stone referenced his grandfather being a decorated Naval Officer and pointed towards support being required in the Royal Navy.

He said: “It is glaringly obvious that in our two aircraft carriers, HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Queen Elizabeth, we have two massively important warships, which very much represent the UK’s potential naval power. However, it also reveals that we simply do not have enough smaller surface warships to provide the protective screen that is always necessary for an aircraft carrier in a hostile or wartime scenario.

"I am very clear that the UK is going to have to embark on a number of suitable vessels as a matter of some urgency.

"History backs up my argument. The protective screen that the Royal Navy could then provide for the aircraft carriers during the Falklands Conflict was absolutely crucial to their surviving undamaged, particularly with a view to anti-aircraft and anti-missile provisions.

"The construction of them would display the UK’s potential global reach and, in a world where we might not expect as much support as we've previously enjoyed from the US, simply reinforces my argument for an extra surface ships speedy construction programme.

"Of course, it is worth remembering that such a building programme would have a secondary benefit to the shipyards where they are built and the people who are employed there. Every pound [spent] on building a British warship should also represent the same pound injected into the local economy."

Scotland is considered to be the heart of the Royal Navy’s warship building programme, with two Frigate-building programmes that will deliver 13 UK warships in the coming years.

Scotland is also the base for P8 Poseidon submarine-hunting aircraft and half of the UK’s Typhoon fast jet fleet, with RAF Lossiemouth supporting around 3,600 jobs, and 10 per cent of the local economy.

The UK's nuclear submarines have additionally been based at Faslane Royal Navy base near the Firth of Clyde, about 25 miles from Glasgow, since the 1960s. The Trident nuclear-weapons system forms a crucial part of Britain's nuclear deterrent.

Mr Stone’s argument about defence boosting local economies was one repeated by numerous MPs, who explained boosting defence was not just about UK government spend, but helping exports and industry.

ADS Scotland, a group that promotes the aerospace and defence sectors in Scotland, described Sir Keir’s commitment as “fantastic news for the sector”. But the body suggested it would reserve judgement on where the funding was spent until the publication of the Strategic Defence Review - a root-and-branch assessment of UK Defence commissioned in July last year.

ADS Scotland director Warrick Malcolm said: “First and foremost I really welcome the announcement from the Prime Minister. It is fantastic news for the sector. In terms of where that money will ultimately go, that will all come from the output of the Strategic Defence Review [SDR].

“The money tap is not getting turned on instantaneously, it will be a slow ramp up in terms of that spend. From our perspective, it is crucial that we invest in the underpinning factors that will make sure we can deliver on the capability that the UK government wants.”

Calling it a “massive step change”, Mr Malcolm said Scotland stood to benefit from increased investment.

He said: “Scotland is in a very good position. We have an incredibly diverse defence sector, from ship building all the way to cyber and drones - critical infrastructure and protection.

“There are also great universities doing defence R&D [research and development]. The Scottish defence sector is well placed to support the UK government’s requirements coming out of the SDR. It’s really important that the defence sector, Scottish Government and Scottish enterprise work with the UK government.”

Last year, the UK government spent £2.1 billion on defence in Scotland, and industry in Scotland showed steady growth for the sixth year running. In 2022/23, the MoD spent more than £2bn with Scottish businesses, supporting 12,200 jobs. This is equivalent to £380 per person in Scotland - slightly above the UK average.

Former SNP defence spokesperson Stewart McDonald argued for the investment to go towards replenishing depleted stocks, but also for it to help make being in the military more appealing, citing recruitment and retention issues.

He said: “Industry is completely stretched right across Europe and the US because of a massive effort to arm Ukraine, so that obviously has diminished national stockpiles which need to be rebuilt.

“The industry needs to be able to recruit more people, and this is where the Scottish Government has a role in working with industry and the UK government to produce a Scottish industrial skills strategy. Post-Brexit, the defence sector struggled to recruit people. They have started to make that up, but there definitely needs to be a skills strategy to get more people into the sector.

“Secondly, research and innovation. Universities in Scotland do some really quite high-end research and development that's applicable to both military and non-military use, particularly in new technologies, the application of AI, drones, all that sort of thing. The war in Ukraine has shown us the real importance of high-tech high spec drone warfare.

“If I'm [First Minister] John Swinney, I'd be thinking this money’s going up, I want to make sure that Scotland gets its fair share of it.

“In terms of what the money needs to be spent on, yes, a bigger army, yes a bigger navy, yes a bigger air force. They need to invest in recruiting more people.

“They need to make it a more attractive offer. It's not great at recruitment, it's even worse at retention. It needs to find a way of stopping the bleeding of people who serve in the armed forces for a few years.

“They get a skill of some description, and then go work in oil and gas for three times the amount, or more than that. We need to find ways of retaining good people and making the offer more attractive and making the offer more attractive to their families.”

SNP MP Stephen Gethins suggested it was npt as simple as just choosing where to invest, and that cutting foreign aid to fund investment actually made the UK less safe.

He said: “Like so many issues here, we are looking at the wrong end of the telescope.

“The way Russians or Vladimir Putin and those around him don’t see defence in terms of purely military hardware, because defence and in their view, military offence, comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes.

“They think about the whole range. Disinformation is as much a part of the war on Ukraine and the rest of democratic Europe as their military assets in the field are. We need to stop thinking about defence as exclusively which military assets the British army happens to have.

“When the UK or other democratic countries disappear, China and Russia will gladly plug the gap. The thing with this international NGO sector is those organisations make us more secure. These are the guys who are in their working at critical times enforcing stabilisation.

“They are there when nobody else is paying attention. It’s during these times that nobody is paying attention that matters more than any in terms of avoiding these conflicts and bluntly, Russian escalation, which is part of its aggressive stance towards its neighbours. This cut to international aid is short termism and makes us less secure.”

Mr Gethins, an academic at St Andrews University, argued the UK needed to find a pan-European approach to defence spending.

He said: “We cannot think in terms of just the British approach. What is the point of figuring out the UK’s approach if we are not discussing it with our Finnish, Dutch, Polish, Czech, Spanish allies? Defence is no longer something we consider in our state wide silos, but something we need to integrate with our other European partners.”

A MoD spokesperson said: “This government's increase in defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by April 2027 will be an engine for growth across the UK.

“Scotland is at the heart of the Royal Navy’s warship building programme, with two Frigate-building programmes that will deliver 13 UK warships in the coming years.

“The frigate-building programmes provide not only world-class assets for the Royal Navy, but considerable prosperity boosts for Scotland. The order for eight Type 26 frigates is sustaining around 4,000 jobs, including 1,500 apprenticeships, until the 2030s, with the five Type 31 frigates sustaining around 2,500 jobs.”