OBR UK Budget leak: How was the OBR forecast leaked? What is the OBR?
The leaking of the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast has been condemned, with immediate calls for an inquiry
The forecast produced by the Office for Budget Responsibility on the UK Budget has remarkably been published more than half an hour before the Chancellor was due to stand to deliver her statement.
The leak is unprecedented and has meant many of the key details contained in the Budget were already known - and had been widely dissected - well before Rachel Reeves announced details, including the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.
Here is what The Scotsman knows so far about the Budget forecast leak.
What is the OBR?
As stated on the OBR’s website, the non-departmental body was created in 2010 to provide independent and authoritative analysis of the UK's public finances.
The OBR is led by the three members of the Budget Responsibility Committee.
Evaluating the UK government's performance against its fiscal targets and assessing the long-term sustainability of public finances is among the OBR’s key objectives. It also assesses fiscal risks and scrutinises the costings of tax and welfare policies.
How did the OBR Budget leak happen?
A link to the economic and fiscal outlook forecast published by the OBR went live just before 11.55am today - more than half an hour before Ms Reeves was due to speak.
The publication online has allowed anyone to read the forecast, which confirmed an extensive list of announcements from the Budget, including that income tax thresholds would be frozen south of the Border until the end of the 2030/31 financial year.
The document also confirmed the scrapping of the two-child benefit cap.
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The publication has been described as a “technical error” by the OBR.
What has the OBR said in full about the leak?
The OBR said in a statement: “A link to our economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed.
“We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened.
“We will be reporting to our oversight board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this happened, and we will make sure this does not happen again.
“Our economic and fiscal outlook and supporting documents will be released when the Chancellor has finished her speech.”
What has Sir Keir Starmer said about the leak?
The Prime Minister refused to say whether he would order an investigation into budget leaks ahead of Rachel Reeves’ announcement.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch pressed him on the economic consequences of rumoured policy changes.
“The Prime Minister doesn’t seem to appreciate the impact of these budget leaks on the UK economy,” she said, as she urged him to “punish” those responsible for briefings.
Sir Keir said: “It’s literally about 25 minutes before the Budget will be set out where we’ll take further decisions, the Chancellor set it out.
“But thanks to the decisions she’s already taken, we’ve got five million extra NHS appointments, waiting lists are coming down, mortgages are cheaper, we have expanded free school meals. That is 100,000 children lifted out of poverty, a moral mission for this Government. Compare that to the record opposite, any day of the week.”
How have the markets reacted to the leak?
UK government borrowing costs jumped higher after the early release of the OBR forecasts, with long-dated gilt yields under pressure.
Yields on 30-year UK government bonds, which are also known as gilts, jumped as much as seven basis points higher to 5.39 per cent, and rose three basis points for ten-year bonds, at 4.53 per cent.
The yield moves counter to the price of bonds, meaning that prices fall when yields rise.
The pound also weakened in response, down 0.2 per cent at $1.31 and 0.3 per cent lower at 1.13 euros.
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