SNP raised income tax because they are 'stupid', 'gamblers' or 'cynical', says former SG adviser

Dan Neidle, a former member of the Scottish Government’s Tax Advisory Group, said he was not consulted on the SNP’s decision to raise the top rate of income tax to 48 per cent.

It comes after an investigation by his think tank, Tax Policy Associates, said the move led to a £22m cut in the amount raised in 2024-25.

Mr Neidle told the Holyrood Sources podcast what he thought was the reasoning behind the decision: "Theory one, they're stupid. They didn't understand it. They didn't realise. Possible.

"Theory number two, they're gamblers. They saw there was a risk, but decided to take it in knowledge of that risk.

"Theory number three, they're incredibly cynical politicians who couldn't care about whether it rings in or loses money, but thought it was a nice piece of political positioning.

"Theory number four, my personal favourite, they're infected by a disease that you often see on the left of politics, not just in the UK, but everywhere, which is, like this thing, this thing seems progressive and good, we should do this thing.

“And the question of whether it's actually going to have the outcome that you want is either not something that even crosses your mind or it's heretical to ask that question."

Dan also told the podcast that he was never consulted about the decision, despite being a tax policy adviser: "At what point do you think we were asked to advise on increasing the tax rate to 48 pence? We were never asked.

“And of course not, because if you'd ask, frankly, any rational human being and said: 'We're about to do this thing and we're not sure if it makes or loses money, and we still don't have good enough data from the last time we did a slightly lesser thing to know if that made or loses money,' who's going to say, 'do this thing?'”

The SNP quietly disbanded the tax advisory group earlier this year, less than three years after it was launched.

The group was launched in July 2023 by Shona Robison, who was then finance secretary and deputy first minister, and brought together a range of experts, business figures, charity bosses and trade union leaders.

Scottish Conservative finance spokesman Craig Hoy said: “These bombshell revelations raise serious questions about the SNP’s entire tax strategy.

“The fact they didn’t even consult one of their tax advisers before forcing Scots to pay more in tax is astonishing and an act of utter negligence.

“We now know that this tax hike resulted in less revenue for the public finances which are already in a dire state after two decades of nationalist mismanagement.

“It also sums up the arrogance at the heart of John Swinney’s SNP government. Despite repeated warnings that they cannot tax their way to economic growth, they have ploughed ahead regardless.

“Swinney and his ministers should come clean on why they thought this was a good idea and why they failed to ask for advice from economic experts.”

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “Any decisions on taxation are for the Cabinet of the day and the intention to increase the top rate of tax by 1% was announced in parliament by the then Finance Secretary in 2023. Tax rates are commercially and economically sensitive and, as such, it is common practice to inform only the Scottish Fiscal Commission and HMRC of income tax decisions before parliament is updated.”