Violent and sexual criminals set for release after two third of sentence under SNP plans
Ministers are also proposing changing the definition of a short-term prisoner from four to five years, allowing more inmates to be released early
Prisoners jailed for violent and sexual crimes are set to be released after serving just two thirds of their sentence as ministers grapple with jails over capacity by around 800 inmates.
Justice Secretary Neil Gray has proposed that long-term prisoners could be released and serve the final third of their sentence in the community, with no exemption for sexual offenders, amid a warning the plans “could profoundly change the way that the prison system treats perpetrators of sexual violence”.
A leading victims charity has warned the plans risk a situation where a “survivor spends longer pursuing justice than a perpetrator of rape spends in prison”, as ministers have been urged to re-think the proposed strategy.
The proposals, subject to a consultation, also include changing the definition of a short-term prisoner, who are currently released after serving just 30 per cent of their sentence, or 50 per cent for sexual offenders, from the current four years to five years - meaning more inmates will be released early.
The consultation document, published by the Scottish government, admits that “the proposed changes could also have an impact for victims, including victims of violence against women and girls” and the plans have been announced the same week reports of sexual offending in Scotland reached a record high.
The document adds that in relation to the proposal for long term prisoners to be released after two thirds of their sentence, “individuals serving sentences for sexual offences or some violent offences will be managed under multi-agency public protection arrangements (MAPPA)” in the community as part of the early release proposal.
The proposal would also apply the policy to release long-term inmates after serving just two thirds of their sentence “retroactively”, with it applying to all those sentenced after February 2016.
Government documents state that “had this change taken effect on 27 February 2026, around 328 people would have been released on non-parole licence immediately”.
The plans also include the presumption against prison for those handed sentences of 12 months and less to be doubled to 24 months, meaning more criminals on shorter sentences will avoid jail altogether.
READ MORE: 'Excessive' overcrowding in Scottish prisons could lead to 'catastrophic failure', says prisons boss
Under previous changes to prisoner release, changes have not applied to those serving sentences for domestic abuse or sexual offences. But that exemption is not included in the new proposals, with a large proportion of long-term prisoners in Scotland in jail for sexual offences.
The Scottish government confirmed to The Scotsman that the early release plan for long-term prisoners does not have an exemption for sexual offenders.
Speaking in Holyrood, Mr Gray acknowledged his proposals were “bold”.
He said: “The vast majority of long-term prisoners will ultimately be released from custody. The question is therefore not whether these prisoners will return to the community but how safely that return can be managed.”
Mr Gray argued that “an extended period of supervision could benefit the management of risk and ultimately reduce reoffending”.
He said: “Therefore the consultation will also seek views for release arrangements for long-term prisoners, including amending the point of release on non-parole licence for some long-term prisoners to two thirds of their sentence, with the remainder of their sentence in the community under strict licensing conditions.
READ MORE: Prisoners to be released after serving just a third of their sentence under new SNP plans
“That is the position we had in place pre-2016. The consultation will also seek views on extending these changes to those on extended sentences.”
The cabinet secretary said it was “imperative that we find the right balance between punishment, rehabilitation, risk management and reintegration”.
He said: “This proposal would enable a more proportionate approach where an individual still serves their sentence - with a greater proportion served in the community under supervision and therefore a greater likelihood of their successful reintegration to society.
“Robust safeguards are in place to manage long-term prisoners in the community who are subject to individualised risk-assessment and licence conditions.
“They must abide by all conditions on their licence and can be recalled to prison.
“Individuals convicted of sexual offences and some violent offences will also be subject to multi-agency public protection arrangements.”
Rape Crisis Scotland chief executive, Alev Taylor, said: "These proposals could profoundly change the way that the prison system treats perpetrators of sexual violence, and we plan to engage with the details of these plans closely with the rights and interests of survivors firmly in mind.
"Organisations like ours have fought hard to maintain the exemption of rape and sexual offenders from early release schemes, both to ensure the safety of survivors and to maintain overall confidence in the justice system.
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"Reports of sexual offending reached a record high this week, and still sexual offences continue to have the lowest conviction rate of any crime type in Scotland while survivors wait for up to three years for a court case to conclude. We cannot get to a point where a survivor spends longer pursuing justice than a perpetrator of rape spends in prison.
"We recognise the dangers of overcrowded prisons and acknowledge that managing the rising prison population is an incredibly difficult task, however we will not accept solutions which come at the expense of survivors of rape and sexual violence.”
Scottish Labour justice spokesperson, Pauline McNeill, said: “It is appalling that the SNP is planning to cut short the sentences of sex offenders.
“At a time when recorded sexual assaults are at their highest level on record, it sends completely the wrong message to cut sentences for offenders.
“Criminals should not get off lightly for heinous crimes because of the SNP’s failure to manage our prisons properly.
“The SNP must reconsider this decision and make sure our justice system can tackle the growing crisis of violence against woman.”
The proposals have been taken forward following recommendations by the independent Scottish Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission.
Under the plans, there will also be continued expansion of the use of home detention curfew and a pilot where GPS-tracking technology is used to monitor individuals on bail curfew as an alternative to being remanded in custody ahead of trial or sentencing, where it is safe to do so.
Two further new prisons will deliver a further 460 spaces. The Scottish government expects HMP Highland to be completed in spring 2027, later than planned due to construction issues, while HMP Glasgow is due to open in 2028
Mr Gray told MSPs that there are currently 8,549 prisoners in Scottish jails, having “recently peaked at 8,603”. The minister sahd this was “around 800 places above the estate’s designed capacity”.
He said: “This poses an unacceptable level of risk to those living and working in Scottish prisons and to the wider justice system.
“Without action, demand for prison places will rise to around 9,500 within the next decade.”
Scottish Conservative justice spokesman Stephen Kerr said: “Today’s announcement is the latest betrayal of crime victims by an SNP government that has failed to plan for the prison capacity Scotland needs.
“Instead of tackling soaring court backlogs, reducing the remand population, and expanding prison capacity, SNP ministers have once again chosen the easy option - cutting the time offenders spend behind bars.”
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