SNP needs to do some soul-searching on oil and gas after losing Aberdeen South by-election
The Conservatives turned the Aberdeen South by-election into a referendum on North Sea oil and gas - and it has fallen in their favour.
“They need to take note of this” - that was the message Aberdeen South’s new Conservative MP said the SNP needs to do after their by-election defeat.
While the Conservatives always had a chance of winning this by-election, the margin of their success was certainly not what anyone was expecting. Douglas Lumsden enjoyed an emphatic win with 14,308 votes compared to the SNP’s Richard Thomson on 8,258.
The Conservatives successfully managed to turn this by-election into a referendum on North Sea oil and gas and it has played out in their favour.
Speaking to The Scotsman after his victory, he said the Conservatives had a “good campaign with good clear messaging” that people wanted to back.
He said it was a “clear signal” that Scotland needs to back the oil and gas industry and that the “SNP needs to rethink its energy policy”.
Mr Lumsden said: “While I’ve been an MSP I’ve been asking for their energy strategy for three years and they haven’t produced it.
“They have a presumption against new oil and gas and they need to change that, they need to back the industry and they need to take note of this.”
So that leaves the SNP with some soul-searching to do on their energy policy.
The nationalists and the Conservatives are not actually that far away from each other when it comes to oil and gas. They both want rid of the windfall tax. They both understand that oil and gas is here to stay for a while yet.
The difference however, is how they flaunt it - the Conservatives very proudly declare their unwavering support for the oil and gas industry, whereas the SNP hum and haw whenever a camera is pointed at them, and mutter about “climate compatibility tests”.
While these tests are undoubtedly important, it does not fill those working in the industry with much confidence.
There has also not been a new energy strategy from the Scottish Government since 2007. Right now there is also a presumption against new drilling in the North Sea as well, and a lot of uncertainty given how vague the SNP often is on this issue.
If there is one thing the SNP can learn from all of this, is they really need to clean up their act on energy policy and how they treat the North Sea oil and gas industry going forward.
There is also internal party wrangling as well on how much Stephen Flynn’s personal ambition here is to blame for this loss. Given it was his move to Holyrood that triggered this by-election, some are already turning their backs on him.
Mr Flynn posted on X to say some needed to “reflect” on the result. Kate Higgins, a former SNP SpAd, reposted this saying she hopes that reflection includes himself.
There also needs to be some soul-searching for Scottish Labour in all of this. While a lot of the party’s efforts went on getting Andy Burnham back to Westminster in the Makerfield by-election, very little was put into either of the Scottish by-elections.
Their vote share collapsed, falling by 19 per cent in Aberdeen South, and saw them finishing fourth behind the SNP, Conservatives and Reform UK in both Scottish by-elections.
If Mr Burnham succeeds in becoming the next Prime Minister, he has a long to-do list to turn around not just the country but the party as well.
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar gets on well with Mr Burnham, and has very much burned his bridges with Sir Keir Starmer, but perhaps improving the Scottish Labour Party will not be high on Mr Burnham’s agenda.
While a good chunk of Scottish Labour’s woes rest with what is going on in Westminster, the party also needs to reflect on themselves at both their dismal performance at the Holyrood election last month, and these two Scottish by-elections.
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