SNP ministers examine measures to help Scots have more children amid 'fertility gap'

Minutes from a meeting of the Scottish Government's population taskforce show recent research has had a specific focus on approaches in Nordic countries.

Scotland’s population is projected to grow to 5.8 million by the middle of 2047, but this is driven by migration, with deaths continuing to outnumber births. Over the same time period, the number of young people is expected to fall.

SNP equalities minister Kaukab Stewart said: “Lower birth rates are a trend across many higher income countries, with significant future implications for our economies, communities and public services.

“We want to ensure that Scotland is the ideal place to raise a family, and while deciding to have a child or not is obviously a matter for individuals, we are identifying and addressing barriers to people starting or expanding families through the delivery of Scotland’s population strategy.

“Inward migration is also key and while immigration is a reserved policy matter, we hope to work collaboratively with the UK Government to support people to move to Scotland.”

Newly released minutes show that at a meeting in December, Ms Stewart “presented a paper which updated taskforce members on recent research undertaken with regards to family friendly policies, with a specific focus on the Nordics, and their potential applicability to Scotland to address the fertility gap and support people to have the number of children that they wish to have”.

The taskforce - which brings together ministers, officials and experts - also “discussed links between family friendly policies and a number of other areas as highlighted in the paper, such as employment, economic development, housing and inward migration”.

It agreed to explore the development of family friendly policies in a Scottish context and pursue further research into parental leave uptake.

The number of births in Scotland fell to its lowest ever recorded level in 2023, continuing a long-term trend. Scotland has a lower birth rate than the UK as a whole and lower net migration, but the overall picture is similar.

The respected Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) previously warned current levels of tax revenue are unlikely to be enough to pay for these demographic pressures.

It said the trend was “broadly beyond the control of governments”, adding: “Fertility policies can have some effect, but only at the margin, and can be very expensive.”

The economic research institute continued: “Other interventions such as childcare provision and extended parental leave are associated with permanent increases in births and some reductions in social inequalities. And there is also some evidence that subsidising assisted reproductive treatment can increase birth rates for women over the age of 35. But these policies are unlikely to be large enough to fully reverse the trend.”

The FAI said the “ultimate help would be higher productivity growth and therefore GDP per capita growth”.

Nordic countries are known for their comparatively generous childcare policies. Scotland’s baby box was based on a Finnish model. However, birth rates are also falling there.