Poll: SNP to reclaim most seats lost to Labour as Westminster set for hung parliament

The SNP would regain most of the seats it lost to Labour in July if another Westminster election was held, a key polling analysis has revealed.

The SNP would retake almost all of the Westminster seats it lost to Labour in July’s general election - as the first significant seat-by-seat analysis since Keir Starmer swept to victory raised the prospect of a hung parliament .

The poll published by the Sunday Times suggests Labour would lose its majority and almost 200 of the seats Sir Keir’s party won almost six months ago.

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Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and SNP First Minister John Swinney(Picture: Andy Buchanan/WPA pool)Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and SNP First Minister John Swinney(Picture: Andy Buchanan/WPA pool)
Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and SNP First Minister John Swinney(Picture: Andy Buchanan/WPA pool) | Getty Images

But the analysis, created by using survey data of more than 11,000 people, points to 87 seats across the UK being too close to call, while in another 221 seats, the winner would hold a lead of less than five percentage points. The next UK election will likely not be held for another four and a half years.

In Scotland, the SNP would reclaim 26 seats from Labour and could play a key role in a hung parliament at Westminster.

The polling suggests that across the UK, Nigel Farage’s Reform party would gain 67 seats from Labour - but would pick up no seats in a Westminster election in Scotland.

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The analysis by think tank, More in Common, forecasts that across the UK, Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives would take 222 and Reform see their tally reach 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP recovering to 37 and the Green Party on two.

In Scotland, as well as the SNP on 37 seats, Labour would be left with just 11 MPs after losing 26 to the SNP, while the Tories would lose the Gordon and Buchan seat to the SNP - with Reform forecast to take almost 19 per cent of the vote and costing the Conservatives the constituency.

According to the analysis, seven UK cabinet ministers would lose their seats, six of them to Reform, with UK health secretary Wes Streeting, deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, home secretary Yvette Cooper, defence secretary John Healey, energy secretary Ed Miliband, UK education secretary Bridget Phillipson and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds would all defeated by Reform.

UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner could lose her seat to Reform, new analysis has suggested. Picture by Ian Forsyth/Getty ImagesUK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner could lose her seat to Reform, new analysis has suggested. Picture by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images
UK Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner could lose her seat to Reform, new analysis has suggested. Picture by Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

Speaking to the Sunday Times, Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK, said: “With potentially four and a half years to go, this model is not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election. Instead it confirms the fragmentation of British politics that we saw in July’s election has only accelerated in Labour’s six months in office.

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“There is no doubt that many voters have found the start of the Starmer government disappointing, and Labour’s estimated vote share would drop significantly were there to be an election tomorrow.”

Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday Show, polling expert and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, Sir John Curtice said the analysis showed that the UK would be bracing for “a very, very hung parliament”, adding that “it might be a hung parliament in which the SNP had not inconsiderable leverage” - with the possibility of Sir Keir needing the support of John Swinney’s party to remain in Downing Street.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Picture: John DevlinPolling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin
Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice. Picture: John Devlin

Despite Reform not on course to pick up a single Scottish seat at a Westminster election, Sir John suggested that Mr Farage’s party was poised to enter Holyrood at the 2026 Holyrood election - taking advantage of the Scottish Parliament’s hybrid electoral system which uses proportional representation for the regional list seats.

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Sir John said that Reform was “not as popular north of the Border”, but added that the party polling at around 11 per cent, it was “doing relatively well in Scotland”.

He said: “The crucial thing we have to remember here is whereas Reform, in the end, struggled to get MPs in July - although they still got four - the election in Scotland that is now coming into view in May 2026 takes place under proportional representation.

“Once a party is at around 5 per cent to 6 per cent of the vote in Scotland, then under that system they are likely to start to pick up seats.

Reform UK leader Nigel FarageReform UK leader Nigel Farage
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage | PA Stefan Rousseau

“So with 11 per cent at the moment, we are looking forward to the prospect, if this is still the position in 12 to 18 months time, of Reform entering the Holyrood parliament in the way that UKIP never did and doing so with not inconsiderable (number) of MSPs.”

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Sir John said that compared to the 2021 Holyrood election, “Reform are unsurprisingly disproportionately taking votes off the people who voted Conservative on that occasion”.

He added: “I think that reflects the party in the July election - Reform primarily eating into Conservative voters.

“Since July, however, its support has been coming from rather more diverse sources in that it’s still proving to be a challenge for the Conservatives, but it is now also both north and south of the Border picking up some voters from people who voted Labour in July and are now evidently disenchanted with that choice - and also some for the Liberal Democrats.

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“The one party that does seem to be relatively immune, however, to Reform’s challenge, is the SNP. They’re not losing very much in the way of votes at all amongst those who voted for them in July. Reform is essentially primarily picking up support amongst those who are supporters of the Union.”

The polling expert warned that the rise of Reform in Scotland could spell bad news for all unionist parties and the campaign to oppose independence.

He said: “One of the problems that the rise of Reform, if it continues, creates for unionists north of the Border, politically the unionist vote becomes even more fragmented than it already was - it was already divided between Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

“There are now four parties in Scotland at the moment, vying for the unionist vote and that inevitably makes its political voice rather weak.

“It also makes it more difficult for the unionists to deny the nationalist parties - the SNP and the Greens and perhaps Alba - from having another majority in the Holyrood parliament in 2026.”

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