Analysis

Inside John Swinney's thinking around scrapping two-child benefit cap as SNP leader weighs up legacy

John Swinney might be playing politics with his two-child cap pledge, but the FM has a genuine thirst for carving out what he’ll be remembered for.

John Swinney had not shied away from his ambition to eliminate child poverty.

That mission is clearly easier said than done, but the First Minister is sticking to his guns.

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First Minister John Swinney  Picture: PAFirst Minister John Swinney  Picture: PA
First Minister John Swinney Picture: PA | PA

Yes, politics were massively at play with Shona Robison announcing the Scottish Government will mitigate the highly unpopular and draconian two-child benefit cap.

Rachel Reeves refused to budge on the policy, brought in by the Tories at Westminster in the height of austerity and dismantling the welfare state. It is a choice for the Labour Chancellor not to reverse it.

After delivering her draft Budget, Ms Robison told me that if the Department for Work and Pensions plays ball with sharing data and the policy can get up and running in the early part of 2026, money will be found in next year’s Budget to start making payments to families. A total of £3 million has been allocated over the next two years to set it up.

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But the politics aside, a huge chunk of the decision to mitigate the two-child cap is Mr Swinney having a genuine thirst to do the right thing.

Labour’s Michael Marra took a pot-shot at the First Minister on Wednesday in his response to the finance secretary’s draft Budget, accusing the SNP of spinning a narrative that Mr Swinney is “supposedly now the fresh-faced ingénu of Scottish politics”.

For those close to Mr Swinney, there is a sense that yes, the decision to mitigate the cap works on a political level. But there is an understanding the First Minister wants to do the right thing and help end poverty.

One Government source close to Mr Swinney suggested there had been a “genuine belief” that Sir Keir Starmer’s government would scrap the cap once they entered Downing Street, and were pretty stunned that hadn’t happened.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with First Minister John Swinney. Picture: Andy Buchanan-WPA Pool/Getty ImagesPrime Minister Keir Starmer talks with First Minister John Swinney. Picture: Andy Buchanan-WPA Pool/Getty Images
Prime Minister Keir Starmer talks with First Minister John Swinney. Picture: Andy Buchanan-WPA Pool/Getty Images

Opponents may disagree, but the source insisted the politics of it were not the driving factor of why the policy had been set out.

They said: “No-one knows what is going to happen in 2026. The opposition talk about John having been a part of this government for almost two decades and that is true. But when you’re at the top, you really feel that. This is about doing the right thing and prioritising something we can be proud of.

“Even if we wake up after the 2026 election and it’s finished, knowing we’ve done this and lifted thousands of children out of poverty, that will be what John has been about.”

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The insider said the motivation behind going in fully with a pledge to end the cap in Scotland was to “turn the dial on child poverty, not just a little bit, but in a big way”.

But there is an acknowledgement within the Scottish Government the SNP has “not yet won that trust back” that has ebbed away in recent years. From now until the 2026 election, the Swinney Government will focus on delivering on what is promised.

Labour do not appear panicked by the benefit cap vow, although one party figure acknowledged “optically” it was a smart move from the SNP.

A Labour source said: “We’re not particularly phased by it from an electoral point of view.

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“We know people are upset by that policy. Mostly, people that are bothered by it weren’t going to vote for us before this, so we don’t think it’s going to have a massive impact on voters.”

Delivering this big political statement will be key if the SNP are serious about regaining that trust and giving themselves a fighting chance of retaining power in 2026.

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