Sir John Curtice: 'Starmer's Labour really are in deep doo-doo'

Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the party’s poll rating is arguably at an all-time low.

He said recent events may not have much impact on this “for the simple reason that it's so low already”.

Sir Keir carried out a major reshuffle of his top team on Friday afternoon following the resignation of Angela Rayner, who breached the ministerial code when she did not pay enough stamp duty on a seaside home.

In a surprise move, he sacked Scottish Secretary Ian Murray as part of this, who said he was “hugely disappointed” to be leaving government.

Speaking to The Scotsman, Sir John said of recent events: "I'm not sure I expect it to have that much impact on Labour's rating in the polls, for the simple reason that it's so low already."

He added: "Clearly, it makes the prospect of a significant recovery in the UK Government's reputation in the eyes of the public between now and [the Holyrood election] next May - the odds on that have lengthened somewhat, though they were pretty long already."

Sir John was blunt in his assessment of Labour’s position. "We can have a slight debate as to whether or not Labour's current poll rating is lower than in May 2019, but it's certainly at an equal record low and arguably it's an all-time record low,” he said.

"They are really are in deep doo-doo, and they are in just as much doo-doo as Jeremy Corbyn ever was. This great post-Corbynite project is not looking very successful at the moment.

"Labour's problem is they've got a leader who can be ruthless - and he's clearly being ruthless with Murray, he's being ruthless with the Leader of the House [Lucy Powell] as well - but he doesn't do politics."

He contrasted Sir Keir with Nigel Farage. "Here is somebody who commands the stage, commands his audience, does it easily, talks naturally, etc etc.

"And that in comparison with the wooden Starmer who cannot portray a vision, and all he's doing is saying, 'These are the country's problems and I'm going to try and solve them.' It's chalk and cheese."

Pollster Mark Diffley said recent developments were bad news for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar as his party looks towards the Holyrood election next year. “It’s really bad timing, obviously, for Anas,” he told The Scotsman. “Hugely bad.”

He added: “He must think, ‘Will I ever get a clear run to be able to make some progress?’”

Mr Diffley said Labour is polling badly in Scotland because of perceptions of the UK Government.

“It seems to me he [Mr Sarwar] just can’t get on the front foot, really,” he said. “It feels like he’s going into this with one arm tied behind his back with everything that’s going on completely outwith his control, but which is continually negatively impacting his chances. That must be hugely frustrating.”

He said Scottish Labour are “hamstrung” by events down south.