Why many Scottish MSPs have lost the Tory leadership contender they wanted

The shadow security minister secured the support of 20 fellow MPs, including Scottish Conservative Harriet Cross, with the former home secretary Mr Cleverly roaring to the top with 39 votes after a strong party conference.

Mr Tugendhat’s exit is a blow to the Scottish Tory MSP group, with 15 of them backing his bid for leader.

Douglas Lumsden, Tim Eagle, Roz McCall, Stephen Kerr, Tess White, Maurice Golden, Finlay Carson and Sandesh Gulhane all endorsed Mr Tugendhat, claiming earlier in the contest that the Tonbridge MP was the only candidate who has spent the time needed to understand the challenges facing Scotland.

However, despite a better than expected showing, Mr Tugendhat was always unlikely to survive this latest round of elimination. Despite a respectable conference showing, there were some in the party who thought his speech was flat, especially compared to Mr Cleverly, who delivered his straight after.

There was also the issue of having defeated Mel Stride, another MP from the party’s one nation group, those on the Tory left. His backers were going to be crucial to the contest, and following Mr Cleverly’s strong performance at conference, they came to him, making the Warhammer fan the clear choice of the moderate wing of the Conservatives. Mr Stride endorsed the former home secretary on Monday night, saying he was the “standout candidate”.

With Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick the alternatives, liberal MPs have picked the man they feel is best placed to topple them among members. While Mr Tugendhat polled well among the country, he was less popular among the Tory faithful.

In a post on social media after the vote, Mr Cleverly said he was “grateful” to his colleagues for their support and “pleased to be through to the next round”.

He added: “The job’s not finished. I’m excited to keep spreading our positive Conservative message.”

Mr Jenrick, the former immigration minister, saw his support fall by two votes, while Ms Badenoch increased her total by two and Mr Tugendhat saw his support fall by one. The results are a particular blow to Mr Jenrick, long considered the frontrunner, and follow a Tory conference where some of his behaviour raised concerns he may be a political liability. His claims that British forces were killing rather than arresting people who have surrendered because of the European Court of Human Rights prompted widespread derision, and sparked a spat with Mr Tugendhat. As a result, his supporters are now likely to coalesce around Mr Cleverly.

A spokesperson for Ms Badenoch’s campaign said the party’s right wing “needs to coalesce around Kemi” given the fall in Mr Jenrick’s support, adding the former business secretary “can reach across and unify the party, has the star quality to cut through in opposition, and is indisputably the members’ choice for leader”.

Polling suggests the Conservative membership favours Ms Badenoch over Mr Jenrick and Mr Cleverly, but that the gap has narrowed since the Conservative Party conference.

A source from Mr Jenrick’s campaign said he was “in prime position to make the final two”.

MPs will hold a further ballot on Wednesday to decide the final two candidates, who will then go forward to a vote by Conservative Party members.

The winner of that vote will be announced on November 2.