Scottish Labour support slumps as SNP extends its lead, polling shows

First Minister John Swinney has also seen a rise in his approval ratings, the Ipsos Scotland Political Pulse survey shows.

Research by Ipsos put support for the SNP at 39% in the constituency section of the ballot, up by three points from March.

Both Labour and Reform were on 15% in the constituency vote, with Labour down five points and Reform down one point on the same period.

While the Nationalist would still fall just shy of a majority, the figures put them in clear first place.

READ MORE:Anas Sarwar: 'It is beneath Swinney to claim Labour would do a deal with Reform'

The Scottish Conservatives have gained two points since the last Ipsos poll at the end of March while the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish Greens remain static on 10 per cent and seven per cent.

In the last Holyrood election in 2021, SNP took 48 per cent of the constituency vote.

On the regional list, the SNP leads with an increased share of 29 per cent in the figures surveyed for broadcaster STV.

The Scottish Green Party and Reform UK are joint second with 16 per cent, Labour comes fourth on 15 per cent, the Conservatives on 13 per cent and the Lib-Dems on 9 per cent.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP will be buoyed by these new numbers.

“Our poll shows them improving their polling lead early in the Holyrood election campaigns, John Swinney’s approval rating has risen, and the party remains the most trusted to handle the biggest issue for voters at this election, the NHS.

“Meanwhile, the poll makes grim reading for Scottish Labour, showing their support weakening on both constituency and regional list votes.”

READ MORE:SNP councillor suspended by party over handling of complaints against convicted sex offender Jordan Linden

However, the survey also showed more than four in 10 voters may change their minds ahead of polling day with Ms Gray warning parties cannot “afford to be complacent”.

The vote share suggests the SNP is projected to win 63 seats in the next Scottish parliament.

Scottish Greens would take 17 seats, Reform UK 15 seats and Scottish Labour 14 seats.

Scottish Conservatives and the Scottish Liberal Democrats are projected to win 12 and eight seats respectively.

Angus Robertson, the SNP Campaign Director, said his party is “within distance of a historic majority”.

He added: “This poll also shows that Labour and Reform’s dismal, negative campaigns are getting them absolutely nowhere – they have nothing positive to offer Scotland and people can see right through them.

“And Labour's abject failure to deal with the cost of energy and petrol will continue to haunt them throughout this campaign.”

Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay called the polling a “huge breakthrough” for her party that would “transform Scottish politics”.

“If people want to secure a pro-independence majority in our parliament and to keep out the hateful politics of Reform then it is crucial that we deliver a record number of Greens MSPs and the positive change that Scotland needs,” she said.

READ MORE: Private nurseries threaten legal action over council failure to provide cross-border childcare

Scottish Conservative deputy leader Rachael Hamilton said Mr Swinney “is on the brink of achieving a majority which we know he will use to push for another independence referendum as soon as possible”.

She added: ”The Scottish Conservatives stopped an SNP majority in 2016 and 2021 and we can do it again.”

Mark Diffley, founder and Director of polling firm Diffley Partnership, said the poll is “notable for showing the SNP strengthening its lead and looking on course to be re-elected for a fifth term”.

Diffley Partnership’s interpretation of the Ipsos figures would give slightly different seat projections with the SNP on 64 and Labour and Reform UK on 16.

The Scottish Greens would return 14 MSPs, while the Conservatives and the Lib Dem would secure 12 and seven seats respectively.

Mr Diffley said: “The poll again highlights the scale of the task facing Scottish Labour and the other opposition parties.

“With less than a month until election day these opposition parties need a significant change in the public mood if the election is to produce the change in government they crave.”

Wendy Chamberlain MP, Scottish Liberal Democrat deputy leader, said the poll “fails to capture the excellent response our data is showing in constituencies where we’re neck and neck with the SNP” citing Inverness and Nairn, and Argyll and Bute.

“Our campaign has embodied the positive vision we have for Scotland: getting everyone the first-rate healthcare they need when they need it, and helping people with the cost of living,” she added.

Scottish Labour was contacted for comment.