Scottish Labour needs answers - and Burnham will depend on them in 2029
Scottish Labour has missed many opportunities to gather power - the new Prime Minister can’t afford any more, writes Keith Geddes
Those politically active in the nineties will remember Geoffrfey Howe's resignation speech which triggered Thatcher's downfall including his wonderful cricketing metaphor - "It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain".
Fast forward to the 2026 Holyrood election. Returning from a leaflet run in Dunfermline I was astonished to see that the Scottish team captain, Anas Sarwar had blamed Starmer for Labour's Scottish woes. At that stage I assumed that this was a way of avoiding blame for what had been a disastrous term as Scottish Labour Leader. Having seen private opinion polls, he had decided to seek to blame others. And, metaphorically, break the bats of Labour activists everywhere.
It is now obvious that it was one of the first shots in the remove Starmer campaign. In effect he sank the Scottish Labour campaign below the waterline, with knock-on consequences for Labour in other parts of the UK.
In normal times the Scottish Labour line should have been that, for the first time in over 19 years, Scotland could look forward to a partnership between Westminster and Holyrood Labour led governments, focussing on growing the economy and the fundamental challenges facing Scottish education.
And Labour's achievements in government were of significant benefit to Scotland. The Employment Rights Act, the end of the two child cap, the record grants to Holyrood and helping secure long term investment on the Clyde and in Rosyth. And a partnership would have seen an end of unnecessary, unwinnable, costly and endless legal disputes with Westminster
In my view a strong argument. Policies not personalities.
Anyone who has taken the time to have a detailed look at Labour's performance in May will find little to cheer. Take Glasgow. Seven first past the post seats; Labour won none, were third in three, and in the Glasgow Regional List Labour came in third behind the SNP and the Greens. And this was in the context of an SNP controlled City Council which had allowed the City's services and reputation to decline. Again, not Starmer's fault. A failure made at home.
Labour's Holyrood manifesto did make references to Glasgow-five to GARL and one to historic buildings. Timidity at the extreme. Twenty seven years on from the Parliament's establishment, Glasgow is in a worse position than it was in 1999. A separate manifesto for the City's recovery would have gone some way to staunching the Labour vote in the city.
A real opportunity was missed in 2024, the 25th anniversary of the establishment of the Scottish Parliament. At a time when confidence in Holyrood was continuing to decline, Scottish Labour should have established an independent panel to examine how issues such as transparency and accountability could be improved. A move which would have been welcomed by Civic Scotland and wider society.
And professionals from the education world should have been asked to produce a plan for the future of Scottish education, one where more academic rigour was introduced, along with increased status for vocational education. If Scotland is to compete again on the world's stage as a growing economy, it's time to recognise that SNP free gifts do not constitute an education policy.
Sarwar and the Holyrood Labour group's fundamental failure was not to sufficiently differentiate themselves from the SNP. They blew a real opportunity to oppose the SNP's Gender Recognition Reform Bill, and instead support women's rights to safe spaces and an end to self ID. Later attempts to resile from what must be the worst ever decision taken by the Party, ran into sand. Attempts by Labour to reconnect with sections of the working class who no longer vote as their parents and grandparents did, are undermined by their support for a policy lacking a scientific basis, or common sense.
There are many deep seated reasons for Labour's decline. I am reminded of a visit to Lothian by Jordi Pujol, Catalonian President, in the years preceding Devolution. Following a contribution at Edinburgh University's Signet Library, he was asked by an audience member how he thought Scots should vote following the establishment of the Edinburgh Parliament. His answer was that Scots should vote for the "Scottish Party" at home, while voting for the UK party at Westminster. I cannot remember the details of Donald Dewar's response, except that I did not find it wholly convincing.
There is some evidence that Pujol's assessment has partially become reality. If Scots think that there is an opportunity to elect a Labour government, as in 2010 and 2024, they will lean towards Labour, while at Holyrood, no matter the myriad failures of the SNP regime, there remains a tendency to vote for the "Scottish" Party. The SNP may only leave office, as with Welsh Labour, for being in power way too long.
Where does Scottish Labour go from here? Chaos or community? Jackie Baillie should remain acting leader for some time, to allow the membership, along with elected leaders at all levels of government, to have an open discussion about strategy, policy, partnerships. devolution of power to local communities and councils.
It goes without saying that Scottish Labour needs answers. Burnham may have already lost middle England. Without a strong contribution from Labour in Scotland in 2029, he may never be elected Prime Minister. Some might call that Karma.
Keith Geddes is past president of COSLA and former Labour leader of the City of Edinburgh Council
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