How Scottish Labour's Holyrood campaign collapsed as pressure mounts on Anas Sarwar
Despite Keir Starmer’s unpopularity costing Anas Sarwar his shot at Bute House, there are big questions for the Scottish Labour leader to answer about how his campaign fell short.
Anas Sarwar and his inner circle spent almost two years lambasting anyone who highlighted data showing Scottish Labour would fall short of forming the next Scottish government. That attitude to pointing out the elephant in the room has left Mr Sarwar’s defeat all the more humbling.
When Scottish Labour pulled off a shock victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election last June, Mr Sarwar handed a journalist a so-called “humble pie” for having predicted they could finish as low as fourth in that election.
But having talked up their chances of victory for months that they were about to turf John Swinney out of Bute House, it makes the lacklustre performance last week, the worst Labour showing since the Scottish Parliament was created in 1999, even more humbling.
Mr Sarwar has insisted he is going nowhere, but one now-former MSP has told The Scotsman that “it’s inevitable he will have to go at some point”, adding that “he cannot surely think he can fall so far short and it be his job to rebuild the party”.
As journalists gathered at the Glasgow count to await Mr Sarwar’s arrival, there were jokes being shared about him “refusing to come out of the car”. To many covering the ins and outs of the election campaign, his defeat felt inevitable.
READ MORE: Labour's downfall cannot mask unionists' failure to oust SNP as Reform and Greens charge forward
The message from senior Scottish Labour figures, since the 2024 general election, has been that when attention turns to the Holyrood election and undecided voters have the opportunity to remove the SNP government, they will back Labour to do it.
This naive approach was born from people across Britain backing Labour with their vote at that general election, to get rid of the hated UK Conservative government. But as last week’s election illustrated, Scottish voters don't think anyone can run the Holyrood government any better than the SNP.
Sir Keir’s deeply unpopular government has cost Mr Sarwar a shot at Bute House, but the Scottish Labour inner circle certainly has its own questions to answer over running an underwhelming campaign.
Scottish Labour’s plan was to bring forward a “more realistic” blueprint for government in Scotland - highlighting that the SNP has failed to deliver on a string of promises.
But when Mr Sarwar unveiled his manifesto in Edinburgh in March, it read like a list of ambitions and a shopping list of how Labour would tinker around the edges.
The document argued that plonking Mr Sarwar in the hot seat would lead to him continuing the centre left strategy created by the SNP, but be in safer hands. The underwhelming method was akin to a football team thinking a new manager can suddenly revitalise players who have lost every game.
There were also choices made in that document that can be perceived as a pretty desperate attempt to win votes from anywhere willing, including pandering to vocal gender critical campaigners over single-sex spaces despite Mr Sarwar not being prepared or able to answer how he would police and legally provide a blanket ban on transgender people.
But when Mr Sarwar set out his vision for Scotland, his party was around 20 points behind the SNP in the national polls. They needed a rabbit - a big idea that would inspire people to vote for them, even if the practicalities were questionable. Mr Swinney had capped bus fares and capped food prices. Mr Sarwar had nothing - it has all been pre-announced.
There is also party anger over Mr Sarwar’s team’s insistence Labour could win in 38 constituencies right up until polling day.
Katrina Faccenda, who represents trade unions on Labour’s powerful Scottish Executive Committee (SEC), told The Scotsman this refusal to focus on “narrowing resources to the real knife edge seats...now feels more about vanity”.
She added: “Those of us who have stuck with Labour for decades and who are convinced in its potential to represent the working class must lead the conversation about what the future of Scottish Labour will be.”
Very briefly during the campaign, Scottish Labour changed their social media branding to “Anas Sarwar for first minister”. Mr Sarwar’s inner circle were under the impression that he was “much more personable” than Mr Swinney. That message failed to cut through and the presidential-style campaign messaging was dropped almost as quickly as it appeared.
Mr Sarwar is a very positive person - he has genuine childlike energy. It was clear why Labour tried to forge his personality into an asset, but it had its risks.
The Scottish Labour leader’s outgoing demeanour, which can be playful and somewhat juvenile, caused problems in the run-up to the election.
As cameras rolled after a set-piece event, in what he thought was a joke, Mr Sarwar likened an unflattering image of himself to a “stroke face”, sparking rightful anger from disability charities and led to a grovelling apology.
In some of his party’s well-funded social media content, Mr Sarwar was also juvenile, while the presentation of Scottish Labour’s bizarre Greyfriars Bobby-themed AI attack video portrayed an attitude of lads laughing down the pub when Scotland was looking for serious politicians.
Similarly, when Reform UK Scotland leader, Malcolm Offord, accused the Scottish Labour leader of “bouncing up” to him and wanting the two parties to do a deal to remove the SNP, instead of brushing it aside, Mr Sarwar’s instinct was to fight it.
“I hope Reform gets pumped in the election”, Mr Sarwar said during the BBC Question Time debate in Aberdeen, really showing off his statesmanship.
The Scottish Labour leader poured fuel on the fire by alleging that Reform MSP Graham Simpson had actually approached him. All Mr Sarwar managed to achieve was let that story rumble on for even longer.
Mr Sarwar has no plans to quit as leader, which given he told voters he was about to become the next first minister, seems an incredible scenario that surely will not stick.
But there are very few people who look like the next Scottish Labour leader. Other than Mr Sarwar and Jackie Baillie, most Scots would be hard-pushed to pick another Labour MSP out of a line-up. All bets are probably on Michael Marra.
But it looks like Mr Sarwar will need pushed out the door, potentially following a crunch SEC meeting on Saturday, instead of embarking on a quiet period of reflection.
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.