Exclusive:Poll: Scots 'do not want US military aircraft to use Prestwick'
New polling has outlined how Scots feel about the Iran war
More than half of Scots do not want US aircraft involved in the Iran conflict to use Prestwick Airport, polling has found.
Further, some three in five voters do not back the overall American and Israeli military action in the Middle East.
A Diffley Partnership survey sets out a stark picture for political party leaders as the Holyrood election campaign advances.
While the war is behind “bread and butter” issues for voters, the military action has the potential to “change public mood”, pollsters warn.
Some 60 per cent of voters overall said they did not support the US war in Iran while 56 per cent did not support the American airforce using Prestwick Airport.
Mark Diffley, founder and director of Diffley Partnership, said: “We’re in the middle of an election campaign and, while this isn’t a bread and butter issue, as far as voters are concerned, it is a live issue.
“It is dominating the media and so there is potential for an event of some sort to happen during the election campaign which changes the public mood.
“It does have the potential to bleed into the campaign so I think all the parties should be paying quite close attention to this polling.”
The UK has authorised the US to use British military bases, including Prestwick, for specific defensive missions to protect the UK.
Little progress has been made to end the conflict in the Middle East since Donald Trump, backed by Israel, began the action at the end of February.
While the US president has suggested previously that the war is near its end and that an objective of regime change has been achieved, Iranian officials say they are refusing to enter negotiations.
A lack of clarity about the conflict’s purpose or end point has led to global market instability, putting pressure on Keir Starmer as he deals with increases in the cost of living.
Only a quarter of the Scottish public overall support the military action and, Mr Diffley said, evidence from previous conflicts suggest the public is likely to become increasingly anti-war as it continues.
He said: ”Even at a very early stage of a war to have 25 per cent of public support is low.
“It might be because we're not directly involved in it, but there is very little backing for any of this.
“If it starts to really significantly impact on things like fuel prices in the petrol stations or in people’s homes and really starts to hit people’s pockets then you could see even that 25 per cent really falling away.”
A breakdown of voters shows Scottish Greens, Lib Dem and SNP supporters are most likely to oppose both military action or the use of Prestwick Airport.
Prior to the Scottish parliament dissolving in March, first minister John Swinney had faced increasing pressure from the Scottish Greens to ban US aircraft on active sorties from Prestwick.
Polling shows SNP voters are 70 per cent against the war itself and 70 per cent oppose the use of Prestwick Airport as well.
Mr Diffley added: “So that's a particular red flag for the First Minister generally about the election.
“It's really only events we can't foresee which could trip him up between now and Election Day.
“And so knowing that the vast majority of his own voter base is pretty vehemently opposed to this, it gives him the very clear message that he shouldn't be saying anything positive about it, or to encourage it.
“It’s unlikely he would, but this is very clear cut evidence that what he needs to do is oppose it strongly.
Labour voters also oppose the war and oppose the use of Prestwick Airport, but by much tighter margins than the other three parties.
Only 55 per cent of them oppose the use of Prestwick Airport compared to the 70 per cent of SNP voters, 70 per cent of Scottish Greens and 76 per cent of Lib Dems.
“So they are a bit more split on this issue, which isn’t particularly helpful to Anas Sarwar,” Mr Diffley added.
Reform UK and Scottish Tory voters are largely aligned.
The number of Reform voters in support of the war sits at 57 per cent in support and only 31 per cent in opposition.
This leaves Nigel Farage’s party with an interesting balancing act, the pollster said, “because you don’t want to be too anti-the war or you’ll put your voter base off but if you go behind it, on the other hand, you’ll put off potential voters”.
For the Scottish Conservatives, 56 per cent oppose and 34 per cent support for the war.
On the use of Prestwick Airport they are also aligned.
Kemi Badenoch, leader of the UK Conservatives, has been accused of u-turning on the issue of the US/Iran conflict, having initially criticised Mr Starmer for failing to be in full throat support of Mr Trump.
She has more recently rowed back on this position.
Mr Diffley added: “Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay needs to play a fairly straight bat on this and be relatively cautious about what he’s saying as his voters aren’t entirely united on this.”
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