Exclusive:Business leaders warn SNP over NHS and living standards after long-term health inactivity surge
A leading economist has warned politicians need to be “rethinking people’s living standards” to end a trend of long-term economic inactivity due to poor health.
SNP ministers have been warned that a failure to make significant improvements in the NHS and living standards is causing a surge of economic inactivity in Scotland.
New productivity research has revealed that more than one third of workers are absent long-term through poor health.
The annual CBI-Addleshaw Goddard Scottish productivity index found that in 2024, the share of economically inactive people in Scotland due to long-term sickness increased by almost 3 per cent from 31.6 per cent in 2023 to 34.3 per cent last year.
The study found that the percentage of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness “steadily decreased” between 2004 to 2015, but has since been “rising steadily”.
Scotland’s rate is above the UK average of 28.6 per cent.
Speaking at an event to launch the index in Edinburgh, Emma Congreve, deputy director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University, highlighted “worrying trends” on economic inactivity.
She said: “It’s a long-term trend. It does make a lot of sense coming out of the pandemic and a decade and a half of stagnating living standards that people’s health is suffering. We really need to think really strategically about that.
“It’s not just about fixing people in terms of their health issues. Obviously what’s happening with NHS waiting lists is part of the story, probably. But what we really need to think about is how we are supporting people to prevent them having conditions which require them to not be able to stay in the labour market.”
Ms Congreve added: “We really need to be rethinking people’s living standards and the conditions people live and work in to really grapple with that so it doesn’t become entrenched long-term. We are seeing very worrying things in the younger generation in particular. It’s not just about fixing the NHS, it’s a bit more fundamental than that.
“Employers definitely have a role but I think there’s other parts of government policy from housing, transport, social security systems, the skills system supporting people transitioning from school into the workplace.”
Michelle Ferguson, CBI Scotland director, warned that “economic activity is not improving”, adding that “it’s getting worse”.
She added: “Long-term economic activity (due to sickness) has dropped by 3 per cent in a year - that’s incredible.
“If we can improve that by 1 per cent, that’s over £1bn to our economy, that’s £2,400 for every person in Scotland. We need to consider that, we need to be saying how do we all work together to improve the economy.”
Ms Ferguson said a focus was needed on “ensuring that people don’t leave work”.
She added: “Once they leave work due to ill health, the chances of them coming back are worse.
“So we need to ensure that we work with government, the NHS and business and we do it together. That tripartite approach is the only solution that we have.”
Deputy First Minister Kate Forbes, warned that “economic activity has been affected by the pandemic”.
She said: “In terms of economic inactivity in the UK, comparative to other OECD countries, it remains much more stubbornly high in the UK than elsewhere, despite very similar experiences of the Covid pandemic.
“That is an issue we need to grapple with. It’s an issue I’ve been quite closely with employers on. It’s also much easier to retain people in the workforce than to lose them and then get them back in.
“Over the last year, we have joined up health, skills and economic action to help people stay in work, to return stronger and to use their skills over a longer working lives.”
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