Exclusive:Sarwar stays for now - but next Scottish Labour leader will be divisive
Scottish Labour’s leadership challenge is coming - but no one knows when, how or who
Last month he led his party to its worst-ever Holyrood defeat.
As the by-election results were returned in the early hours of Thursday, his candidates in both Arbroath and Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South only barely returned with their deposits.
Yet while the Labour leadership battle rages down south, Scottish leader Anas Sarwar’s position is curiously comfortable - for now.
Depending on who you ask, Mr Sarwar is either intending to step down immediately after Holyrood’s summer recess or he’ll remain holding the reigns for up to 12 months.
Timeline aside, succession planning for a new leader is taking curious shape.
Five names are being bandied around as possible successors but only one is motivated by ambition. The others share a reluctant sense of obligation.
No one believes Mr Sarwar will see out the Holyrood term, no one wants a coronation and no one wants a leadership race.
Those touted as successors do not currently want to run.
“Whoever we get is a downgrade,” is the gloomy summary of one senior insider.
First out the traps has been Michael Marra, the only Labour figure willing to go on the record.
When asked about his leadership ambitions he said there is “no vacancy to be filled” and he is “supportive of Anas seeing us through this period”.
Behind the scenes, it is understood Mr Marra is actively seeking support both in terms of his run and in putting together a credible, energising pitch to Labour members.
Like the majority in his party, he knows there are fundamental philosophical questions to be considered about its future - what of its relationship to the UK party, for one.
What should be its referendum position, another.
READ MORE:A barely audible 'guilty' marks the pinnacle of the Peter Murrell drama that has dogged the SNP
“We need to think very hard about what happens next,” Mr Marra said.
“If we just do the same things again then we will get the same answer from the electorate again.”
Scottish Labour is a party in existential crisis and it knows a change of prime minister, while useful, is no saviour.
“This should be the social democracy moment,” one Labour MSP said. “Yet that’s not part of the conversations.”
One of the loudest proponents of a social democracy movement is Daniel Johnson, the Edinburgh Southern MSP and another hotly tipped candidate for leader.
Another maybe is Glasgow list MSP Paul Sweeney.
Sources close to Mr Johnson say he would not “categorically” rule out a tilt at the leadership.
However, like Paul Sweeney, he feels the weight of the question and does not want to answer it lightly.
Mr Johnson secured a solid victory with the SNP vote share falling by 13 per cent and his swinging up 8.4 per cent.
“Why were we only managing to do that there and in a couple of other places?” said one senior source.
Mr Sweeney has publicly been unequivocal about his feelings towards a leadership race.
Asked directly at a recent Fabian’s event whether he planned to run, Mr Sweeney gave The Scotsman an emphatic, “No”.
Privately, however, he is understood to be persuadable. He is close to Angela Rayner and an ally of Andy Burnham, which would assist him.
Less spoken of but a potential “dark horse”, as one MSP termed it, is Joe Fagan. The former South Lanarkshire Council leader is believed to be deputy Scottish leader Jackie Bailie’s first choice.
He hasn’t had a chance to make a mark yet and is far from the most popular choice more broadly.
There is one other wild card, albeit it involves moving parts. Monica Lennon, a serial front bencher, lost Rutherglen and Cambuslang to the SNP.
She is, however, next on the list. Were Anas Sarwar to step down from parliament, Ms Lennon could be back - and allies say almost certain to run.
Feelings about the possible runners and riders are mixed.
“Michael is the only choice out of that group of 17,” one former MSP said.
“He’s not perfect and he won’t be like Anas but what he lacks he can make up with good people around him.”
Some suggest answers to Labour’s woes come from a highly devolved party structure.
“We should also accept that we need to take an approach of incremental gains to build back like the Lib Dems have been doing,” one said.
Other say Mr Marra has shot himself in the foot by positioning himself too early - the “Scottish Wes Streeting”.
“Marra is not winning the leadership unless he is unopposed,” a Labour source said. “Pick any MSP randomly and they’ll win against him.”
Mr Marra has been lumbered with responsibility for the Scottish Labour manifesto process, the most heavily criticised part of the campaign. Others say this is unfair.
“Nobody was really in the room other than Anas, Jackie, Kate and Douglas,” they said, referring to Secretary of State Douglas Alexander and Kate Watson, Scottish General Secretary.
“They are in complete denial that anything went wrong on their part - just carrying on as though nothing happened.”
Paul Sweeney is similarly divisive. Paul Sweeney is similarly divisive. Some are certain - “If Paul stood he would win.”
Others are certain of the opposite.
READ MORE: Nicola Sturgeon makes her final address to the Holyrood chamber - did she keep her Promise?
Feelings are less divided over Mr Johnson.
One insider said: “Posh guy from Edinburgh doesn't necessarily sell the vision we want to as a party.”
However, the general feeling is that he is good with business, generally well-liked by colleagues, hardworking and responsible for the one section of the manifesto - skills - that received attention.
Others say Ms Lennon would be the dominant candidate for a “huge” section of the party.
Timing-wise, most voices want Mr Sarwar to stay until after the local elections where there is little optimism for electoral improvement.
Any earlier and “you become a new leader, and the first thing you do is get utterly pumped.”
Maybe there’s a bounce with Burnham, maybe there isn’t. Maybe there is a bloodless coronation, maybe there’s a protracted, messy, vengeance-filled realignment.
"The fact is, Anas is currently the best we've got," another insider said. "At least when he goes, and I think that will be sooner than people are saying, it will be with dignity.
"That's the one thing Scottish Labour has over Starmer now."
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.