Analysis

Russell Findlay can bash the SNP all he wants, but the Tories are struggling for survival

Mr Findlay’s speech - although entertaining for those in the room and delightful for headline-seeking journalists - showed he does not know how to stop the rot.

You could tell from Russell Findlay’s speech at the Tory conference that he used to be a journalist.

The ex-Sunday Mail and Scottish Sun man threw some red meat for the hacks, saying that Scotland had become a “laboratory for weird and wacky policies.”

He made jokes about Conservatives knowing what a woman is and John Swinney “probably thinking Braveheart was a documentary”.

Russell Findlay's party is polling poorly for next year's electionplaceholder image
Russell Findlay's party is polling poorly for next year's election | PA

It all gained a audible laughs from the room among a crowd that was grateful for some light relief at the moment.

All of this is just a distraction from the harsh reality: Mr Findlay’s party looks set for its worst ever Scottish Parliament election next year.

From the dizzying heights of second place and 30-odd seats in 2016 and 2021, the Conservatives will be lucky to finish fourth in May.

Their strongest periods came when the SNP was doing well and campaigning for independence.

This allowed themselves to portray themselves as the main party of the union.

It meant it could eat into Labour voters who did not feel the party was strong enough against independence.

But with independence not at the forefront of the Scottish public’s minds, the Conservatives are struggling for relevance.

And the rise of Reform UK means they are in a fight for their survival.

It is inevitable that Nigel Farage’s party will overtake the Conservatives at next year’s election.

The question is just how well they will do.

The Tories are haemorrhaging votes to Reform both north and south of the border.

But there is a risk for the Scottish Conservatives that they will lose lots of votes to Labour and the Lib Dems as well.

Findlay had a couple of swipes at Sir Keir Starmer and Labour in his speech, but his main aim was to bash the SNP.

The problem is: Labour, the Lib Dems and Reform all do this as well.

And they do not have the same baggage as the Tories do from 14 years in government.

If voters are against the SNP because of culture war issues, why would they vote Conservative instead of Reform?

Reform take a much stronger line against policies which could be dubbed ‘woke’.

And if they want a change because of delivery, why would they vote for the Tories than Labour?

The Conservatives cannot win next year. At least Labour has an outside chance of running the next Scottish Government.

Mr Findlay’s speech - although entertaining for those in the room and delightful for headline-seeking journalists - showed he does not know how to stop the rot.

He could put himself forward as a modern centre-right Conservative leader who generally wants lower tax and is pro-business.

This is what Ruth Davidson did and it is was very successful - taking the party to heights it hadn’t seen in Scotland for decades.

The Conservatives will never manage to outdo Reform UK at their own game - be it on immigration, oil and gas or culture war issues.

But there will always be room for a moderate right of centre party in Scotland.

Mr Findlay will have to make some progress soon or he will find the Tories languishing behind the Lib Dems and the Greens in terms of seats.

And he will be out of a job come next summer.

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