Rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK boosts support for Scottish independence

A Norstat survey for The Sunday Times put support for Yes at 54 per cent, which is the joint-highest level recorded by the polling firm in the series.

Asked how they would vote if Mr Farage became prime minister, 58 per cent of Scots said they would back independence. This is close to the 60 per cent tipping point many SNP insiders believe would make opposition to another referendum unsustainable.

Elsewhere, the poll found support for the SNP has dropped slightly but the party is still on course to win 54 of Holyrood’s 129 seats at next year’s election, due to the splitting of the unionist vote.

Reform would win 18 seats, putting it just behind Labour on 20 and ahead of the Conservatives on 17, according to projections by polling expert Sir John Curtice.

The Liberal Democrats would secure 11 MSPs, up from five, and the Greens nine, an increase of two. This would leave a small unionist majority in Holyrood.

Norstat polled 1,007 Scottish residents between May 27 and May 30, with just days to go until the crunch Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, which is expected to demonstrate rising support for Reform in Scotland.

Both the SNP and Labour are publicly treating Mr Farage’s party as their main rival in the constituency. The Reform leader will visit Scotland tomorrow.

Mark Diffley, a pollster from Diffley Partnership, said: "The SNP and wider nationalist movement will be encouraged by the poll's findings of 54 per cent support for independence.

“But what will concern the pro-union parties the most is the finding that the prospect of Nigel Farage as PM would push support for independence close to the symbolically important 60 per cent.

“The rise of Reform is not only hitting Labour and the Tories at the ballot box but represents an increasing threat to the Union."

Sir John said the findings suggest Mr Farage is "not as toxic in the eyes of Scots as many of his rivals believe".

He said: "John Swinney is in pole position to remain Scotland's first minister after next year's Holyrood election. But his party is still struggling to recover from its sharp reversal of fortune last year.

“Key to the SNP's lead is the rise of Reform. Nigel Farage's party is now breathing down Labour's neck in the race for second place at Holyrood."

Norstat has previously recorded higher levels of support for independence for other clients, with 56 per cent and 55 per cent recorded in late 2020. However, 54 per cent is the joint highest recorded by the firm in a poll for The Sunday Times.

The highest that support for independence has reached in recent years is 58 per cent, in an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV News in the early months of the pandemic, as Nicola Sturgeon received plaudits for her handling of Covid-19.

SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said: "This poll is proof of what we already know: the SNP has momentum and the Labour Party has lost this by-election.

"After ten months of failure and broken promises, voters know that the Labour Party can't be trusted, and see Farage's party as the threat that it is.”

Scottish Labour’s deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “Scotland has been let down for too long by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.

“After 18 years in charge, the SNP has left our NHS at breaking point, our economy flatlining and our schools tumbling down the international league tables.”