Reform's Holyrood tax pledges 'not credible' and 'unserious', says IFS

The think tank said claims made in the party’s manifesto were ‘not good enough’

The tax pledges at the centre of Reform UK’s Holyrood election manifesto are “not credible” and “unserious at best”, a respected think tank has said.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said claims made in the 27-page document were “not good enough”.

Nigel Farage’s party has pledged to slash income tax in Scotland immediately by aligning with the rest of the UK’s three bands and cutting 1p below each.

“Initial cuts – setting each tax rate 1 percentage point below that in the rest of the UK – would cost around £2.3 billion per year by 2030, with the final goal – rates 3 percentage points below the rest of the UK – costing around £4 billion a year,” said the IFS.

“These are large tax cuts – up to 1.5 per cent of Scottish GDP – in the context of a Scottish Budget that is already likely to be under strain due to rising spending pressures and a slowdown in funding growth from the UK government.”

The think tank dismissed Reform’s claim that the income tax cuts would pay for themselves via higher economic growth as “not credible”.

It said: “The ‘self-funding’ tax cuts are therefore a mirage created by a misunderstanding or misrepresentation of the current devolution settlement and incorrectly comparing cumulative and annual figures. This is not good enough.”

Its analysis concludes: “In summary, the combination of big tax cuts and implied benefit increases without any identified source of funding is not fiscally credible. And the analysis of the potential revenue effects of the headline income tax cuts is unserious at best.”

Reform pledged to cut the number of MSPs in Holyrood and “shut down” the country’s quangos as it launched its manifesto ahead of the Scottish election in May.

The party said it would reduce the number of constituencies from 73 to 57, to align with Westminster. There are 56 list MSPs in the Scottish Parliament in addition to constituency members.

Elsewhere, it vowed to “shut down the quangos and return their powers to democratically elected ministers supported by the civil service”.

Malcolm Offord, the party’s leader in Scotland, suggested every quango would be closed “until we find out which ones can justify their existence”.