Reform UK support falls as Labour clear in second place, poll finds
The Norstat survey showed backing Nigel Farage’s plummeted since February after a chaotic start to the Holyrood campaign.
Reform UK support in Scotland has fallen to its lowest level in a year with Labour clear in second place, a poll has found.
The Norstat survey for The Sunday Times showed backing Nigel Farage’s plummeted since February after a chaotic start to the Holyrood campaign.
The SNP remains well in front but polling guru John Curtice said the drop in Reform support was “bad news” for John Swinney’s party.
Prof Curtice said the perception of Reform UK losing momentum could help Labour and the Tories convince more anti-SNP supporters to back them.
Reform has fallen down to 15 per cent on both constituency and regional list. Both of these were down four points compared with the previous Norstat poll seven weeks ago.
The SNP is on 34 per cent in the constituency - down one per cent - and is unchanged at 30 on the regional list. Labour is up two points on 19 per cent and stays at 17 per cent on the list.
Mr Curtice said that if this were the outcome on May 7, the SNP would win 57 seats. This would be eight short of a majority.
Labour would be the main opposition party on 20, with Reform in third on 16.
Strathclyde University’s Prof Curtice said: “Support for Reform is down by four points on both ballots and is lower than in any Norstat poll since January 2025.
“It must be concerned that the tide of support it has been enjoying has receded just weeks before it has the opportunity to turn polling numbers into electoral success.
“Following the US bombing of Iran, Nigel Farage’s close association with the US president may now be a disadvantage. Even those who voted Reform in Scotland in 2024 now give Donald Trump a negative net rating. Meanwhile, the party’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, is not proving an electoral asset.”
Reform UK has lost multiple candidates since the start of the campaign, with the controversial comments of others - such as support for far right Tommy Robinson - coming up.
Scottish leader Malcolm Offord has made various gaffes since becoming leader in January. He has also been criticised for a racist and homophobic joke about George Michael which he told at a rugby club in 2018. He has since apologised.
Former Tory peer Mr Offord had an approval rating of minus 32 - nine points lower than it was in February.
The Greens were unchanged at eight per cent on the constituency vote and up one per cent to 12 on the list. This would make it the fourth largest party with 13 MSPs.
The Tories were on 11 per cent for constituencies and 10 per cent for the list. This would leave it on 12 MSPs, dropping from the main opposition to fifth place.
The Lib Dems, who were on 10 per cent for both votes, would get 11 MSPs.
The result would likely mean John Swinney remains as first minister - if the Greens give him backing.
According to Prof Curtice, all of the SNP’s 57 seats would be from constituencies. The Tories would win seven constituencies, the Lib Dems would win five and Labour would win four.
Scottish Labour Deputy Leader Jackie Baillie said: “It’s clearer than ever that this election is a straight choice between Scottish Labour and the SNP.
“After nearly two decades in government, the SNP is tired, complacent and out of touch and Scotland is crying out for change.
“More and more people are seeing through the rebranded Tories and self-promoting con artists in Reform after their disastrous campaign start, but the truth is they were never serious contenders in this race.
"The momentum is with Scottish Labour, while the SNP and Reform have been mired in scandal and chaos since the start of the campaign.
“The only way to get rid of the SNP and fix the mess they have made of our NHS, our schools, our ferries and our communities is by electing a Scottish Labour government that will get the basics right.
“On May 7 we can choose change and deliver a better future for Scotland by voting for a Scottish Labour government led by Anas Sarwar.”
Norstat polled 1,006 Scottish voters between March 30 and April 1.
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