Reform UK records highest level of support in Scotland in new poll

Nigel Farage’s party will gain 14 seats in Holyrood if the findings are replicated in next year’s election.

The Survation poll, conducted for public affairs agency Quantum Communications, also showed the SNP remains on track to be the largest party, but with fewer MSPs.

The SNP, Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives all face being squeezed by the rise of Reform. Its strongest support on the regional list vote is among those aged 16 to 24.

Experts said Scottish Labour would need to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform to mount a challenge in the May 2026 contest.

The Survation poll of 1,012 people in Scotland puts the SNP on 34 per cent of the constituency share and 29 per cent on the regional vote. Compared to January, that is down one percentage point and two points respectively.

Scottish Labour is up one point to 23 per cent in the constituency vote and down one point on the list to 20 per cent.

Reform has risen sharply to 17 per cent in the constituency vote share, and 16 per cent on the list, which are the highest figures it has ever recorded in a Scottish poll.

According to calculations by the Diffley Partnership, this would result in 55 seats for the SNP, 19 for Labour, 17 for the Conservatives, 14 for Reform, 13 for the Lib Dems, ten for the Greens and one for Alba.

Professor Nicola McEwen, director of the Centre for Public Policy at the University of Glasgow, said: “The rise of Reform across the UK has been one of the key features of polling in the last year. Until now, Scotland had seemed to buck the trend, but this poll puts Reform UK at its highest share of the vote in Scotland to date.

“The poll suggests Reform UK could be a real contender for constituency seats in those regions where it has most support, especially Central Scotland, Mid Scotland and Fife, and the West of Scotland.

“The party is also polling strongly in party list preferences … in the three regions where it is strongest, Reform UK now has around the same vote share as Labour. Although small numbers in the sample point to the need for caution, 16 to 24-year-olds represent Reform’s strongest voter group by age.

“This is not unique to Scotland. Across the UK and Europe, far-right parties today appear able to capture support from young people to levels normally associated with the far left.”

Mark Diffley, the founder of Diffley Partnership, said: “The parties which will feel happiest by this latest poll from Quantum Communications are Reform UK and the SNP.

“Reform has recorded its highest ever showing on a Holyrood poll, with almost one in six voters backing the party, meaning it would return an estimated 14 MSPs if this result were replicated at next year’s election, making it the fourth largest party in the Parliament.

“SNP vote share has continued to stabilise in the mid-30s, representing a recovery from the party’s showing at the 2024 UK general election – although still a significant fall from the 48 per cent recorded at the last Holyrood election in 2021.

“Nonetheless, if this result were repeated next year, it would be substantially the biggest party again at Holyrood and may have the opportunity to form a pro-independence majority with support from the Scottish Greens and Alba.”

Mr Diffley added: “Labour and the Conservatives will be most disappointed by the poll, with both parties losing ground.

“Only six in ten of those who voted Labour last year intend to do so again, with the party losing support to the SNP and Reform in equal measure. This makes Labour’s task very difficult, but it needs to win back voters from both the SNP and Reform if it is going recover ground and challenge next year.”

Alan Roden, co-founder of Quantum Communications, said Reform “is eating into the vote of all the main parties”.

He said: “It continues to gain support despite a bout of infighting among its MPs, a calamitous trip to Scotland by the UK deputy leader, and the absence of a Scottish leader.

“But the 2026 election still remains highly competitive, with the SNP well down on its 2021 result, Labour ahead of its main rival in central Scotland and Glasgow seats, and the Lib Dems performing well in their key target areas of Edinburgh and the Highlands.”

Survation polled Scots aged 16 and over between March 6 and 13.

A Reform UK spokesman said the poll “confirms what we all know - Reform has all the momentum in Scottish politics”.

He said: "Scottish people are sick and tired of failed SNP, Labour and Tory politicians promising the world and then delivering higher taxes, lower pay and a worse quality of life. Scotland needs Reform.”

First Minister John Swinney described the poll results as “quite encouraging”, but stressed he intended to “build on it further”.

“You all know the challenges my party has faced and to be in that position is an indication that my leadership is connecting with the people of Scotland and giving us a commanding lead in the prospects of the election,” he said.

On losing a third of the party’s support held since the 2021 election, Mr Swinney added: “The SNP has been through a pretty tough time. The fact that we are still in a commanding lead in Scottish public opinion and we would have the largest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament by a country mile is a strong base on which I intend to build.”

A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: “This poll shows Reform helping the SNP to win a pro-independence majority. Under Russell Findlay’s leadership, we will continue to rebuild trust with disillusioned voters by holding the SNP Government to account and focusing on common-sense conservative values."