Poll: Scottish Labour set for worst Holyrood election result since devolution

The Norstat poll for The Sunday Times found just 18 per cent of voters intend to back the party, which would leave them tied with the Conservatives on 18 seats each.

The SNP, meanwhile, would secure 55 MSPs and the Greens ten, which would mean a pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament.

The poll found Nigel Farage's Reform UK is set to win 15 seats at next year’s Holyrood election, and the Liberal Democrats 13.

Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, said Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar's hopes of becoming the next first minister "are, it seems, fading fast".

Writing in The Sunday Times, he said: "Labour’s vote is now only half of the 35 per cent it won in last year’s general election. Its support has drained away in all directions.

"As many as 15 per cent of those who backed the party in July now say they will vote Reform in next year’s Holyrood contest. But similar proportions are now supporting the SNP (14 per cent) or either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats (15 per cent)."

He said much of the blame lies in Westminster and Sir Keir Starmer's unpopularity.

Prof Curtice said Reform is fracturing the unionist vote. "This may help the SNP to win nearly three quarters of the 73 seats at Holyrood on only 35 per cent of the vote, a disproportionality that the allocation of the 56 list seats would not fully correct," he said.

"As a result, Scotland may still find itself with a majority of pro-independence MSPs even though fewer than half of voters had backed a pro-independence party. Such an outcome would leave Labour’s hopes of putting the constitutional debate to bed in tatters.”

First Minister John Swinney is the least unpopular of the main party leaders in Scotland, the poll found. SNP support has fallen by two points to 35 per cent and Labour by three points since the last Norstat survey in December.

Meanwhile, Reform is more popular than Labour among working class voters. It is the second most popular party among older men, after the SNP.

The poll found more people in Scotland think Donald Trump is a good leader than think the same of Sir Keir or UK Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.

SNP MSP Fulton MacGregor said: “This poll confirms what we already know – support for Labour is imploding under Anas Sarwar’s leadership.

“It’s hardly surprising given Labour’s track record at Westminster, the highlights of which include slashing the winter fuel payment, adopting the two-child cap as their own policy, hiking National Insurance, betraying WASPI women, and sky-high energy prices.”

He added: “With a slew of polls suggesting Labour are on course for their worst ever Scottish Parliament election result, more and more questions are being asked about Anas Sarwar's weak and indecisive leadership.

“While Mr Sarwar puts party before country, the SNP is putting Scotland’s interests first and looks forward to setting out a positive vision for our nation in 2026.”