Poll: Economic insecurity driving political disaffection in Scotland

The survey by the Diffley Partnership for anti-poverty charity the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) found nearly half (47 per cent) of adults feel economically insecure.

More than one in five (22 per cent) feel very economically insecure, of which nearly three quarters (72 per cent) are not confident they could pay an unexpected cost of £200 in the next week, or cover essentials such as food and energy.

The research found the more economically insecure people are, the more likely they are to be politically disaffected.

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The JRF described the findings as “a wake-up call for political parties as they enter the election to commit to investing in policies that will improve living standards”.

Chris Birt, its associate director for Scotland, said: “These findings show that people are really worried about their day-to-day finances, with many not even sure they can cover the cost of essential things like food and energy.

“At the same time, people are feeling overlooked by politicians, with levels of disaffection and mistrust worryingly high as we head towards the Holyrood election.

“But crucially, people are not withdrawing from politics altogether, and are keen to use their vote in May so it has the maximum impact.

“They want to see a lower cost of living, higher pay for the lowest-paid workers, and investment in affordable and good quality social housing.

“It is now up to Scotland’s parties to outline what they will do to win over these voters, improving their living standards and repairing their trust in politics.

“Make no mistake: bold action is needed to reshape Scotland’s economic and political systems. It’s an opportunity our politicians can’t let slip by.”

The poll is part of a project with the End Poverty Scotland Group (EPSG), with an accompanying report containing testimony from people with experience of poverty.

It found nearly half of people in Scotland (46 per cent) are worried about their household’s income over the next year.

Around two in five (41 per cent) are not satisfied with their savings, while more than a third (35 per cent) are worried about building up debt in the coming year.

The majority (58 per cent) of respondents believe the Scottish Government is responsible for improving the living standards in Scotland.

However, trust in politics is low, with nearly two in three (64 per cent) agreeing that politicians “do not listen to the concerns of people like them”.

More than half (56 per cent) said politicians prioritise the concerns of “better-off people”.

Researchers found levels of economic insecurity went “hand in hand” with political disaffection. This was measured by taking into account people’s views on the political system, their elected representatives, political parties and voting.

Around two in five (41 per cent) of economically insecure Scots are also politically disaffected, rising to more than half (52 per cent) of the very economically insecure.

Of those feeling both economically insecure and politically disaffected, 16 per cent said they were undecided on who to vote for in the upcoming Scottish Parliament election.

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The Diffley Partnership polled 3,052 Scots aged 16 or over between November 3 and 27.

It came as a separate poll for The Sunday Times found support for Reform UK appears to have stalled in Scotland.

The Norstat survey showed backing for Nigel Farage’s party dropping slightly for the first time in nine polls.

It also suggested Scots are willing to embrace tactical voting to defeat Reform at the ballot box in May.

The poll showed the SNP with a substantial lead of 35 per cent on the Holyrood constituency vote, and 29 per cent on the more proportional regional list.

Scottish Labour has regained second place in terms of vote share, with 19 per cent on the constituency vote, up two points, and 17 per cent on the regional list, down one point.

Reform’s support on the latter fell by two points. On the constituency vote, 17 per cent said they planned to back Reform, down three.

Projections by Sir John Curtice, the polling expert, suggested the result would see the SNP secure 59 seats, six short of the overall majority John Swinney is targeting to push for a second independence referendum.

Reform would still emerge as the second biggest party, with 19 seats, due to how the Holyrood voting system works. Labour would win 18 seats, the Tories 14, the Greens ten and the Liberal Democrats nine.

The poll found 57 per cent of Labour voters would back the SNP if a constituency battle was a two-horse race between Reform and the Nationalists.

And 76 per cent of those planning to vote SNP would back Labour if a seat was a straight fight between Reform and Mr Sarwar’s party.