Exclusive:Not rejoining EU could lead to Scots Labour MP 'wipeout', poll finds
Labour could see its Scottish seats slashed from 37 to just three if they fail to go further on EU relations in their next manifesto
Not pledging to rejoin the European Union could lead to a “near total wipeout” of Scottish Labour MPs at the next general election, a poll has found.
Labour could see its Scottish seats slashed from 37 to just 3 if they fail to go further on EU relations in their next manifesto, according to analysis of modelling from YouGov commissioned by the pro-EU think-tank Best for Britain.
But the study also found that if the UK government vowed to rejoin the bloc, it would hold on to 32 of the seats won in 2024.
The findings come after Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said he will consider rejoining the EU.
Lillian Jones, Labour MP for Kilmarnock and Loudoun, said: “This polling comes as little surprise to those of us in Scotland, where we are pro-European to our core.
“From our energy companies to our salmon farmers, from our famous distillers to our world leading universities, each one has adapted to the post-Brexit era but with one hand tied behind its back. Now is the time, as this report shows, to take the brakes off, improve our relationship with our partners in the EU, and allow our country to prosper.”
A sample of 14,000 people were were asked by YouGov how they would vote if a general election was held tomorrow.
They were then asked how they would vote based on four hypothetical Labour Party policy positions on the EU.
The policy positions were: a closer relationship with the EU without rejoining the Customs Union, Single Market or the EU itself, rejoining the Customs Union, rejoining the EU Single Market and rejoining the EU.
Best for Britain then used YouGov’s constituency-level MRP projections to map out how many seats Scottish Labour would win with each position on the EU.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, said: “This data makes it painfully clear: Labour’s future in Scotland, which is crucial to the party forming a government by locking Reform UK out of power, is bleak - and nothing short of near-total wipeout, unless they commit to going much further on our future in the EU.
“It must be a resounding wake-up call both to Andy Burnham and (Scottish Labour leader) Michael Marra that the people of Scotland, like the rest of Great Britain, are of one mind when it comes to the UK and the EU: they know it’s been a disaster and they simply want to be back in.”
Mr Burnham acknowledged this week he could go “all the way” and propose rejoining the European Union as he considers the UK’s future relationship with Brussels.
The Prime Minister, who has blamed Brexit for a decade of drift and division, said he would look at the “pros and cons” of all options.
In his first Labour Party conference speech as leader, the Prime Minister said Brexit had done “more harm than good” and promised to set out the options to the country around the time of a UK-EU summit later this year.
He said he did not want to leave the issue “hanging” and he wanted to be clear on “where we want Britain to go in the next decade”.
Asked whether he wanted the UK to rejoin the bloc, he told the BBC he wanted to “look at the options”.
“We could stay as we are. That’s definitely an option, if people think this is the right place to stay.
“We could look at what (former Conservative chancellor) George Osborne has said about a customs union, we could look at what the Liberal Democrats said at their conference about the single market, or we could go all the way.”
Labour’s election manifesto in 2024 ruled out joining a customs union, going back into the single market or allowing the return of freedom of movement with the EU.
But Mr Burnham has indicated he is prepared to recommend going beyond those red lines in future.
“There are clearly options that need to be considered, and we have to look at what is doable and what would be the pros and cons of each,” he said.
He said the need for a debate about the UK’s future relationship with Europe was part of his plan to shift the country in a new direction.
“We’ve been in a rut. The country hasn’t been working for people as it should,” he said.
Mr Marra also said he would like to see the UK rejoin the EU “in a generation” during an event at the Labour Party conference.
He said: “At some point in the in the distant future, were Europe to be a different place, I would like us to be part of the EU.
“Actually, I think we're looking at a generation or more before that is a realistic prospect.
“Politics, as I'd say, in Europe is really unstable at the moment. Facing many of the same challenges as we are as the UK in terms of the global economic instability, challenges in the Middle East, migrant crises across parts of Europe have really destabilised politics.
“So I can't think it's a prospect that we're looking at.
“And actually, what we should be focused on is what works. People want us to be pragmatic about this relationship. I think that's where we need to be.”
He then said he would consider a generation to be 25 years.
The UK government and Labour were approached for comment.
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