North Sea sector faces Grangemouth-scale redundancies every fortnight without action, warns report

Research by Robert Gordon University (RGU) found the UK risks losing tens of thousands of offshore energy jobs by 2030.

Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the energy transition institute at RGU, warned the “window of opportunity for delivering a just transition is closing”.

The new report suggests a 2030 UK offshore energy workforce requirement - including oil, gas and renewables - of between 125,000 and 163,000 jobs, compared to today’s figure of approximately 154,000.

However, the specific oil and gas workforce is forecast to fall from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s.

In the lower case scenario, the North Sea workforce could shrink by the equivalent of around 400 jobs every two weeks for the next five years.

Under the higher case scenario, workforce demand levels across the UK could hit more than 210,000, but this would require the delivery of an additional 35 GW - or close to 6 GW per year - of offshore wind and sustaining UK oil and gas activities for an extended period, similar to policies applied in Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

The report warned the potential risks for Scotland’s supply chain and workforce are substantial.

If Scotland fails to capture the full range of offshore energy opportunities and the oil and gas decline continues to accelerate, the Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could decrease from approximately 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s.

Prof de Leeuw said: “With investment at risk and renewables projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders.

“The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that UK offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by almost 20 per cent to 125,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.

“The analysis shows that there is a workforce ‘goldilocks zone’ between 2025 and 2030 during which the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimised.

“However, key to the effective delivery of the goldilocks zone is rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing programme of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realise ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.”

He added: “The UK possesses all the attributes and resources to realise the ambitions set out in government strategies and forward-looking industry programmes.

“The report shows that with the right interventions at the right time, the UK can achieve its strategic energy goals and reach its net zero objectives, all while protecting and significantly enhancing workforce numbers in the offshore energy sector.

“Countries such as Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands are already successfully balancing traditional energy production with rapid expansion of renewables, a model the UK could and should emulate.

“The review recognises the constraints to accelerate the deployment of offshore wind, CCS, hydrogen and other renewable energies over the remainder of this decade.

“However, the analysis highlights that Governments can rapidly put in place policies to better manage the decline in the oil and gas sector, so that offshore energy jobs and the UK’s world-class supply chain can be sustained and retained.”

SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said the just transition was “being put in jeopardy”.

“The independent expert advice is clear, we will see a Grangemouth scale of job losses each and every fortnight if the UK Government does not shift from its misguided position and protect the energy industry of today so that the workforce can use their skills and expertise to develop the net zero industries of tomorrow,” he said.

“The opportunities of net zero are enormous but they will not be realised if the Labour Government continues with its current fiscal regime that deters stability, confidence and investment in existing industries and we therefore lose our best people, and world-class supply chain, to nations elsewhere.

“Whether it is the impact of the energy profits levy or the failure to fund the Acorn [carbon capture] project, we run the real risk of being in a ‘worst of all worlds’ type scenario and that would be unforgivable.

“This Robert Gordon University report is a warning, but it should also serve as an eye opener to the huge opportunity that lies before Scotland – it’s imperative that Westminster does not stand in the way of that future and we secure economic growth and breathe jobs into our energy sector for many generations to come.”

Conservative MSP Douglas Lumsden said: “This alarming report lays bare the economic vandalism caused by both Labour and the SNP’s opposition to oil and gas.

“400 jobs vanishing every fortnight over the next five years is the equivalent of an operation the size of Grangemouth closing every two weeks, yet both of Scotland’s governments remain hell-bent on decimating the industry.

“John Swinney and Keir Starmer have disgracefully sat back while jobs continue to be lost throughout the sector as both remain totally oblivious to the fact that renewables alone can’t yet satisfy our energy needs.

“There is nothing just about a transition that abandons highly skilled workers with no concrete jobs to go into which is exactly what is happening in Scotland. We should be working with the industry not against them.”